Colorado Rockies news and links for Wednesday, April 17, 2024
During spring training in 2023, the notable flaw in newly acquired Nolan Jones’s game was an overabundance of strikeouts. His inability to put the ball in play led the Colorado Rockies to option him to Triple-A Albuquerque to begin the year where he worked extensively with hitting coach Jordan Pacheco and other coaches to curb the habit, or at least counter it, and become a productive bat.
He blew up in Albuquerque and eventually was called up to the Rockies where he established himself as a capable offensive player. Yes, he still struck out 29.5% of the time, but he offset that by clubbing 20 home runs, having a .297 AVG and a 12.5% walk rate.
Now, in 2024 strikeouts have come to plague the Rockies as a whole even more, but especially when for Jones. In spring training he struck out 22 times in the 20 games that he played while walking five times. After a slow start, which is understandable, he started to pick up near the latter half of March and left camp batting .250/.310/.385 with no home runs but he did have five doubles and a triple.
Unfortunately, those struggles in spring training have carried over to the early part of the regular season, especially when it comes to the strikeout. Entering Wednesday Jones leads all of baseball with 30 strikeouts in 78 plate appearances over 18 games. He has struck out at least once in 16 games including six games with just two strikeouts and four games with three strikeouts. His 40.5% strikeout rate is almost double the league average and is a problematic sign that could grow into a bigger problem if isn’t addressed.
But why is it that Jones, who was the most valuable Rockie last season and finished fourth in National League Rookie of the Year voting, is striking out so much?
A visualization of strikeouts
First, it’s best to look at where he is striking out in the zone. Pictured below are the 30 pitches that resulted in strike three.
Predictably, opposing pitchers are opting to work in the shadow of the strike zone on Jones, rather than giving him anything too good to hit over the heart of the plate. The shadow is the borderline area hovering around the rectangular strike zone box that we typically conceive as the zone.
Jones is showing decent plate discipline and patience to start the year. His eight walks are second on the team and he leads all of baseball with 4.72 pitches per plate appearance. Jones is exhibiting some patience and lengthy at-bats and has seen the third-most pitches in baseball this season behind Mookie Betts and Ian Happ.
One factor that could be hurting Jones is that he isn’t getting favorable calls from umpires. Looking at a chart of called third strikes hints at this reality where he’s getting the short end of the stick on borderline pitches that are off the zone.
So while he’s getting wrung up looking half the time, his swinging strikeouts paint another picture of his struggles.
Pitches up in the zone and below the zone are proving troublesome for him. A factor that is harder to quantify but still evident thanks to a game-by-game analysis by UmpScoreCards on X, is that Jones is also getting unfavorable calls earlier in a plate appearance at times which then can have an adverse effect on those pitches that are causing him to strike out swinging. It’s not the main factor, but it certainly plays a part when he swings at a pitch off the zone.
The pitches that are producing the swings and misses are the fastball up and a mixture of offspeed and breaking balls below the zone. Conversely, the called strikes are mainly from dotted fastballs on the black which are great pitches from whoever is throwing them.
Looking at how he is striking out doesn’t necessarily point to anything he’s doing wrong, but rather that he just isn’t winning his at-bats against opposing hitters who are now pitching him differently and more carefully this season.
Beyond the strikeouts
The majority of pitches he is seeing are working down and away from him. As a lefty power bat, it’s a natural progression to combat Jones by working away from him. It becomes more difficult to barrel up the ball and allow him to utilize his natural pull power.
When Jones can make contact, he is getting on top of pitches and rolling groundballs to second base. He currently has a 47% ground ball rate as opposed to a 19.4% fly ball rate. He is doing fine with line drives but his struggles at the plate become more apparent when you look at the missed opportunities during a given plate appearance, specifically the amount of pitches he is wasting via the foul ball.
As you can see, there are a lot of pitches in the middle of the zone that Jones is fouling off rather than doing damage against. Constantly missing pitches over the heart of the plate can point to a struggle with timing or swing mechanics causing him to be early or late on a given pitch. Most foul balls are a result of a late swing which could mean that Jones’s bat head is lagging behind the rest of his body. The hips are firing early, which then drags the hands and the bat through the zone, rather than working in sync and throwing the hands quickly through the zone to get the barrel out to the ball.
No protection
There has also been a factor that while it should have been predicted that teams would pitch him differently this season, he hasn’t been getting much protection in the lineup to combat that change. At the start of the season, he was batting third in the lineup with Brendan Rodgers behind him and Kris Bryant in front of him, both of whom have been off to horrendous starts to begin the year. When there hasn’t been a threat surrounding Jones it makes it easier to pitch around him and keep him from doing damage.
Lately, he has been batting fifth or sixth, often between some combination of Elehuris Montero, Elias Díaz, Brendan Rodgers, and Brenton Doyle. Both Jones and Rodgers have seen some improvements hitting the lower part of the lineup lately which helps indicate that lineup placement is an important factor.
As Jones finds ways to get his timing down and throw out hits, it could prove fruitful to place him somewhere in the lineup that will force pitchers to throw to him. As much as manager Bud Black likes to offset his lineup in a left-right-left type of style, placing Jones between the team’s two hottest hitters, Ezequiel Tovar and Ryan McMahon could do wonders in helping him in the lineup.
A return to the third spot in the lineup (and a demotion to the bottom part for Kris Bryant) could be worth a try. With Charlie Blackmon as the lead-off followed by Tovar, Jones, and McMahon you could shake up the offense just enough to help everyone involved, especially Jones even if it means all three of your left-handed hitters are at the top of the lineup.
Conclusion
The silver lining of Jones struggling to start the season is that expectations are low for the Rockies. He’s admitted he’s been putting pressure on himself to do well and be the big contributor. The reality is that the pressure is unwarranted because he alone isn’t going to save this team from 100 losses this season.
However, he can be a big part of what the Rockies are trying to build and he doesn’t need to do it all by himself, but be a part of the machine that helps the unit as a whole. We all know what he is capable of and Jones has to keep working to not only enjoy himself like he did last year but develop the fortitude to endure the struggles with the rest of the team.
★★★
The Rockies join four other teams in the projections to lose 100 games this season, which would be a record for the first time that five teams all lost 100 games. It’s likely that this will be the fifth consecutive year with four 100-loss teams, but adding a fifth probably isn’t the party the team wants to be a part of.
Royals trade partner history: The Rockies | Royals Review
Our fellow blog here at SB Nation is doing a series on trade partners with the Royals and Max Rieper took a look on the history with the Rockies. There have been a total of 10 trades with the Royals with the most useful trade for the Rockies being the acquisition of one Jorge de la Rosa, who was part of a strange trade sequence.
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On the Farm
Triple-A: El Paso Chihuahuas 12, Albuquerque Isotopes 4
Karl Kauffmann started the game and struggled on the mound for the Isotopes as El Paso utilized an eight-run third inning to cruise to victory. Kauffmann allowed five runs on four hits in 2 1⁄3 innings, issuing four walks. On the night the Albuquerque staff allowed 11 walks and had just four strikeouts, three of which came courtesy of Riley Pint over two scoreless innings. Sean Bouchard hit his first home run of the year, a two-run shot, and Julio Carreras hit a triple.
Double-A: Hartford Yard Goats 5, Somerset Patriots 1
Two hits apiece from Zac Veen and Ryan Ritter, along with a two-RBI day for Benny Montgomery played a big part in Hartford’s victory on Tuesday. Veen added a double on the day while newly minted Top 100 prospect Sterlin Thompson hit an RBI triple. Andrew Quezada started on the mound for Hartford and was excellent through five innings, allowing just one run on four hits and striking out three. The bullpen allowed just two hits and one walk over four innings while adding seven strikeouts to the total.
High-A: Everett AquaSox 5, Spokane Indians 3
Despite tallying 10 hits the Spokane Indians mustered just three runs on the night. Dyan Jorge, Jesus Bugarin and Jesus Ordonez each had two hits while Robby Martin Jr. drove in two runs. The only extra-base hit was a double from Braiden Ward. Mason Green made the start for Spokane, going five innings and giving up four runs on six hits with four strikeouts and a walk.
Low-A: Fresno Grizzlies 9, Stockton Ports 2
During a morning tilt against the Stockton Ports, the Fresno Grizzlies utilized a seven-run second inning to lock down the victory. Andy Perez belted a grand slam in the second inning to cap off the second inning and went 2-for-5 with five RBI. The team tallied six hits and drew 13 walks, including three from Darius Perry. Jace Kaminska started on the mound and tossed 3 2⁄3 innings, giving up just two hits and striking out four. Isaiah Coupet took home the victory after tossing three innings and allowing one run on three hits.
★★★
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