With the rise of advanced analytics in nearly every sport, the NBA and its fanbase have been at the forefront of embracing data that goes beyond the boxscore. The league itself encourages this, providing public access to a wealth of in-depth statistical information, free of charge on the NBA.com stats page. However, with this increased access has come a troubling trend: the misuse, overreliance, and often lazy interpretation of those NBA statistics. This wouldn’t be as much of a concern if it were only fans doing it. Unfortunately, even those expected to cover the league professionally often do the same.
Numbers Can Lie Actually
A common misconception is that uncovering a single statistic automatically means something significant. In truth, it’s only the starting point. For it to be truly meaningful, it must be interpreted within the right context, supported by other relevant metrics, and be reflected in what’s actually happening on the court. A single stat alone can rarely tell the full story. Only by pairing it with film study and a broader analytical framework can we uncover the really relevant numbers.
Take, for example, a statistic that gained traction during the Nuggets’ playoff run: Russell Westbrook shot over 48% from the right corner three during the regular season and 42.5% from both corners combined. At first glance, that might suggest that he became a legitimate threat from deep. But a closer look reveals that Westbrook attempted just 56 right corner threes all season and only 106 total corner three-point attempts in 75 games, or roughly 1.4 per game. That’s hardly a large enough sample to draw meaningful conclusions.
The volatility of such a small sample size became evident in the playoffs, where Westbrook’s shooting from the right corner plummeted to 25% (4-of-16), while his left-corner accuracy improved to 40% (8-of-20), which brought his overall corner three percentage in the playoffs down to 33%. So in the end, the much repeated corner three-point efficiency from the regular season amounted to nothing come playoff time.
How to Correctly Evaluate NBA Statistics
When analyzed through the lens of in-game situations, Westbrook’s three-point efficiency needs to be seen with a certain context in mind: nearly all of his attempts come on wide-open looks. Defenses actively choose to leave him unguarded so they can double-team more dangerous offensive threats like Nikola Jokic. This is why comparing his three-point percentage directly to that of high-volume creators like Steph Curry or Luka Doncic would be misleading. Those players are forced to take far tougher shots as primary options within the offense, making raw efficiency a flawed metric to use without the proper context.
Moreover, while corner threes are among the most efficient shots in the game, their misses come at a steep cost because they can often lead to transition opportunities for the opposition.
And finally, given Westbrook’s style of play, corner threes don’t naturally factor much into his offensive approach. He’s a playmaking guard who prefers to operate above the break. He occasionally ends up in the corners, especially when playing off the ball alongside another playmaker like a Jamal Murray. But that alignment creates its own set of issues. Westbrook’s greatest strength, his passing, goes underutilized when he shares the floor with another primary ball-handler. And in that off-guard role, players like Christian Braun have filled the spot more effectively, thanks to the young guard’s shooting and, even more importantly, his defense, especially in the postseason.
A more telling stat, then, would be his efficiency on above-the-break threes, where he attempted 184 shots during the regular season, making 49 (26.6%). In the playoffs, that number slightly improved to 29.6%, but here we do not have the same discrepancies due to the larger sample size.
Final Takeaway
In the end, no one should fault casual fans for posting a fun stat they found on social media. But when major media outlets like ESPN and so-called basketball experts present NBA statistics without the necessary context, it warrants critical scrutiny. A higher standard of analysis would go a long way in helping all fans to better understand what players are truly contributing on the court.
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The post Numbers Can Lie Actually As Seen With This Westbrook Stat appeared first on Last Word On Basketball.