Recent data add to the growing evidence that epidemics are declining in the UK.
But it is too soon to announce that the locks have been successful in Scotland, England, Wales and Northern Ireland.
The UK’s chief medical officer has reduced the R number by a small amount, suggesting that the development of the eruption is slowing.
This is not the equivalent of a real decrease. If it is R1, then every person with the virus infects each other.
If 10,000 people have it, it means that they will affect 10,000 more people with the inevitable impact of death and hospitalization.
The virus infected 654,000 people in the UK in the week to November 6, according to the National Statistics Survey, one of the state’s most reliable images of the epidemic.
Except R no Goes below 1 and that number does not start to fall.
After its influential REACT study showed similar flatness, a scientist at Imperial College London compared it to a mountain.
If the slope is less steep, the climb will be easier – but if you are still too high, that is the important fact.
The film released data on deaths and hospital admissions, which showed no signs of slowing and had not yet arrived for several weeks.
But more reliable estimates can be found. The team behind Govt Symptomatic analysis now estimates that R1 is below every region of the UK.
But even if this is true, the source fact of the spread is inevitable, as the application is ahead of the official figures.
For that reason, I hope the government and its scientific advisers are already concerned about the outcome of the lockout.
Since the modeling indicates that the R number is unlikely to go below 0.6 during this locking, it is unlikely that the vulnerability will be reduced to a very low level by December 2nd.
The new documents confirm SAGE’s view of the existing layout: if it is reintroduced, cases will rise back to where they were at the beginning of the lockout.
Then there is Christmas.
Operating data from across the UK make it very clear that people started circulating more and more before the lockout.
In London, according to Citimapper, a travel app, more people have traveled than ever since March 16.
What will people do after this lockout is over? Because government newsletters design Christmas as a reward for good behavior, it is unlikely that people will stay home long after their families leave.
We can see the new wave of infections long ago.
Unless the vaccine arrives soon, or we discover a new strategy for managing the virus, this locking may turn out to be less effective than we expected – even if the early symptoms have an impact.