• Skip to main content
  • Skip to secondary menu
  • Skip to primary sidebar

Denver Sports Today

Denver Sports News Continuously Updated

  • Broncos
  • Rockies
  • Nuggets
  • Avalanche
  • Colleges
    • Air Force
    • University of Colorado
    • Colorado State
  • Soccer
    • Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
    • Rapids

Pac-12 survival guide: Examining the Fear Index as vultures circle and uncertainty looms

July 10, 2022 by The Denver Post

Welcome to the sixth installment in a Hotline series on the future of the Pac-12. Links to previous articles are below …


With the Pac-12 fighting for survival following the announced departures of USC and UCLA, the Hotline has attempted to sketch the widest range of scenarios for the 107-year-old conference — from mergers and acquisitions to the status quo and extinction.

The situation is extremely fluid, with those in charge unsure of the outcome.

What appears plausible today could be impractical tomorrow.

What feels far-fetched in the moment could seem obvious within a week.

The conference could hold together and not expand, thus dividing the revenue pie 10 ways instead of 12.

If it replaces the Los Angeles schools, two options stand above others for strategic value: San Diego State, because of the proximity to Southern California, and SMU, because of the foothold in Dallas.

We also addressed the benefits of an alliance (or merger) with the ACC or Big 12.

(In fact, the Hotline examined the merits of a strategic alliance with the Big 12 three years ago. Had the conferences partnered back then, they would be in stronger position today despite the defections of Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC and USC and UCLA to the Big Ten.)

But in the interest of sketching as many scenarios as possible so readers aren’t surprised by any outcome, we should add this to the mix: A fractured separation.

In this scenario, Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah would head to the Big 12, largely because of their geographic fit, while Washington, Oregon, Stanford and Cal would join the ACC because of their institutional alignment.

It’s unlikely, sure. But don’t discount the potential for this wave of realignment to conclude somewhere outside the box.

With that, the Hotline presents the first edition of our Pac-12 Fear Index, a school-by-school breakdown of destinations and anxiety levels.

Arizona

Fear Index: moderate

Outlook: So long as the administrations in Tucson and Tempe move in lockstep, the Wildcats should land safely. But in the unlikely event that the fracture we saw in California — with UCLA splitting off from Cal despite sharing a board of regents — were to repeat in Arizona, the situation could get worrisome for the Wildcats. As its own entity, the football program brings little value on the open market.

Arizona State

Fear Index: low

Outlook: We have fielded numerous questions about ASU on two fronts: The potential impact of the NCAA investigation; and the significance of the Phoenix media market. The former is a short-term issue dwarfed by a long-term decision and shouldn’t affect the Sun Devils. The latter is more nuanced. Market size matters, but not as much as it used to. Now, the ability to drive ratings (i.e., brand value) is critical.

Cal

Fear Index: high

Outlook: Eons of university apathy toward football have thrust Cal into an uncomfortable position, with no guarantee the Bears will find a home if the Pac-12 fractures. As difficult as it might be to envision Cal sharing a conference with Iowa State or Baylor, remember this: the athletic department has 28 Olympic sports to support and hundreds of millions of dollars in stadium debt to service. The Bears cannot afford to be selective.

Colorado

Fear Index: moderate

Outlook: The Buffaloes were a member of the Big 12 until 2011 and would have the easiest assimilation process. But they don’t bring ASU’s media market or Utah’s competitive success. If the Big 12 undertakes a raid, CU needs the league to conclude there’s safety in numbers and add at least four schools. If the Big 12 turns selective and only adds two — a scenario we don’t think likely — the Buffs could have reason to fret.

Oregon

Fear Index: high*

Outlook: The Ducks will have a home, whether it’s the ACC or Big 12 or Pac-12. But the level of anxiety in Eugene is significant for a different reason (hence the asterisk): The likelihood that Oregon’s landing spot will 1) be considered beneath a program that fashions itself one of the best in the country and 2) permanently impact its ability to recruit at a high level and compete for playoff bids.

Oregon State

Fear Index: extreme

Outlook: If the Pac-12 dissolves and the Big 12 doesn’t swallow all 10 schools, the Beavers are in serious trouble. Their options seemingly would be limited to the Mountain West or perhaps the Big Sky. We’re highly skeptical that state politics could legally bind OSU to Oregon, thus forcing the hand of a marauding conference. But in an alternate universe, all is well —  because Phil Knight went to school in Corvallis.

Related Articles

  • College Sports |


    College football recruiting: Colorado State’s Jay Norvell landing talented wide receivers over Power 5 schools

  • College Sports |


    Kiszla: College football has gone mad. Do CU Buffs or CSU Rams have guts to just say no to the insanity?

  • College Sports |


    Grading the Week: CU Buffs football just became less relevant, but Joel Klatt is here to assure us that’s just fine

  • College Sports |


    Pac-12 mailbag: WSU, OSU on the brink after Big ten earthquake

  • College Sports |


    Chuck Neinas: CU Buffs bring good value in realignment

Stanford

Fear Index: high

Outlook: The Cardinal is attractive on multiple levels, with the academic reputation appealing to presidents in other leagues and the media market attractive to TV networks. We can envision scenarios in which Stanford lands in the ACC, Big 12 or even Big Ten (with Notre Dame). The greater risk here is philosophical: Given the likelihood that athletes will be deemed employees sooner than later, the university could opt out of Power Five football altogether.

Utah

Fear Index: zero

Outlook: The Utes are in excellent strategic position to survive the chaos and thrive wherever they land. Thanks to their geography, in-state recruiting pool, the Salt Lake media market, rabid fan support and granite football infrastructure, the program is poised for success in an expanded Big 12 or reconfigured Pac-12. Nothing to see here. Move along.

Washington

Fear Index: zero

Outlook: Even if the Power Five consolidates into the Power Four or Power Three-And-A-Half, the Huskies will have a seat at the table. With its tradition, brand, academic reputation and media market, UW might be the most desirable program not pledged to the SEC or Big Ten and not Notre Dame. (North Carolina, Clemson and Oregon would be on the short list, as well.) That said, the Huskies’ destination might not be ideal competitively.

Washington State

Fear Index: extreme

Outlook: WSU faces the same challenges as Oregon State with the dastardly combination of tough geography, limited budget and low brand value. If the Pac-12 doesn’t hold together or combine fully with the Big 12, the Cougars seemingly are headed for a spot in the Mountain West or Big Sky. This, despite five winning seasons in the league’s expansion era — the same number as UCLA.


Previous installments:

Five themes that frame the next step
Pac-12 to jump-start media negotiations
Merge or partner with the ACC or Big 12
The best expansion options: SMU and SDSU
The financial benefits of standing on 10


Support the Hotline: Receive three months of unlimited access for just 99 cents. Yep, that’s 99 cents for 90 days, with the option to cancel anytime. Details are here, and thanks for your support.


*** Send suggestions, comments and tips (confidentiality guaranteed) to pac12hotline@bayareanewsgroup.com or call 408-920-5716

*** Follow me on Twitter: @WilnerHotline

*** Pac-12 Hotline is not endorsed or sponsored by the Pac-12 Conference, and the views expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the views of the Conference.

Share this:

  • Click to share on X (Opens in new window) X
  • Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window) Facebook

Filed Under: University of Colorado

Primary Sidebar

Recent Posts

  • Team-by-team breakdown of every player headed to Futures Game
  • The Broncos’ tight end room has a ‘Joker’ in Evan Engram and a lottery ticket in Caleb Lohner.
  • Who was the best goal line quarterback in the NFL in 2024?
  • Colorado Rapids Academy’s Jackson Pomeroy Selected to 2025 MLS NEXT All-Star Game
  • Analyzing The Impact of Addition of French Big Man For The Knicks, and What’s Next

Categories

Archives

Our Partners

All Sports

  • The Denver Post
  • 247 Sports
  • Bleacher Report
  • DNVR
  • Forgotten 5
  • Mile High Maniac
  • Mile High Sports
  • OurSports Central
  • The Sports Fan Journal
  • The Spun
  • USA Today

Baseball

  • MLB.com
  • Last Word On Baseball
  • MLB Trade Rumors
  • Purple Row
  • Rox Pile

Basketball

  • NBA.com
  • Amico Hoops
  • Denver Stiffs
  • Hoops Hype
  • Hoops Rumors
  • Last Word On Pro Basketball
  • Nugg Love
  • Real GM
  • Pro Basketball Talk

Football

  • Denver Broncos
  • Broncos Wire
  • Last Word On Pro Football
  • Mile High Report
  • NFL Trade Rumors
  • Our Turf Football
  • Predominantly Orange
  • Pro Football Rumors
  • Pro Football Talk
  • Total Broncos

Hockey

  • Elite Prospects
  • Last Word On Hockey
  • Mile High Sticking
  • Mile High Hockey
  • Pro Hockey Rumors
  • Pro Hockey Talk
  • The Hockey Writers

Soccer

  • Burgundy Wave
  • Last Word on Soccer
  • MLS Multiplex

College

  • Busting Brackets
  • College Football News
  • College Sports Madness
  • Ralphie Report
  • Saturday Blitz
  • Zags Blog

Copyright © 2025 · Magazine Pro on Genesis Framework · WordPress · Log in