The timing of it all makes perfect sense.
No, not that timing. Not the timing of the Pac-12’s media rights deal, which has been extended far beyond what was originally forecast and might not be completed for many more weeks.
Instead, we’re referring to the timing of on-the-record comments about the negotiations by those in the know. The utterances fit perfectly within the larger saga.
The conference held its annual double-shot of spring meetings in the first half of May. The athletic directors gathered in Scottsdale (with coaches) during the first week, then came the quarterly board meeting of university presidents on May 15 in Seattle.
Both agendas included updates from commissioner George Kliavkoff on media rights negotiations and conference expansion.
Kliavkoff hasn’t spoken publicly about the topics for six months, and that didn’t change following the May meetings. But two athletic directors and one president addressed the situation, thus providing fans and media members alike with enough crumbs to create a path through the silence.
Let’s dig in.
— In an article published last week on Oregonlive based on an interview earlier in the month, Oregon athletic director Rob Mullens addressed the Ducks’ future in the conference:
“The Pac-12 has 10 outstanding members remaining and we’re one of them,” Mullens said. “I think the Pac-12 has served the University of Oregon well. I think everybody is aligned. I think there’s great confidence we’re going to end in the right place.”
Some took “we’re going to end in the right place ” to mean either the Pac-12 or the Big Ten. The university is weighing its options, essentially.
The Hotline interpreted those eight words to be specific to the Pac-12 — that Mullens expects an acceptable deal, that the Ducks are committed to the conference, that they fully intend to sign the grant-of-rights and bind their media revenue to the Pac-12 for the duration of the contract.
Partly by nature and partly by experience — he was chair of the playoff selection committee — Mullens knows exactly what to say publicly, how to say it and how it will be received. We consider it highly unlikely that he would have offered a comment that (purposefully or mistakenly) drew Oregon’s intentions into question. He’s far too smart for that.
— That same day, May 16, Arizona State athletic director Ray Anderson commented on the media rights and expansion during a conversation published by the ‘Speak of the Devils’ podcast:
“I’m very confident in the long-term viability (of the Pac-12). The 10 schools are solid … It will be summertime when we have a deal to announce. I don’t know if that’s July or August.”
Unlike other Pac-12 athletic directors, who have been as vague as possible in their rare public comments, Anderson offered a specific timeline for resolution. (We suspect the conference office was less-than-pleased given its attempts to temper expectations.)
While Anderson’s tone was generally positive about the direction of the negotiations, one word caught our attention: “announce.”
He didn’t say “it will be summertime” when they have a deal. He said “it will be summertime” when they have a deal “to announce.”
That suggests an intriguing possibility: That the conference already has an agreement in place, or the framework of an agreement, but isn’t moving forward with the final steps at the request of one (or more) of its media partners.
— The final public utterance that appeared on our radar came from a university president, Washington State’s Kirk Schulz, who spoke to Cougfan.com after the Scottsdale gathering but before the quarterly board meeting.
He offered a notable comment on multiple fronts:
“We have more bidders coming to the table, more people interested as time goes on, and the 10 schools are as unified as I’ve ever seen them.
“We hope in the next few weeks to a month to have a media rights deal, then get the grant-of-rights signed by all 10 schools, and then to work on expansion.”
Without diminishing the insight provided by Anderson or Mullens, it’s important to remind fans that Schulz is a member of the Pac-12’s executive committee, the three-person group of presidents that works closely with Kliavkoff to set the strategy. (Washington’s Ana Mari Cauce is the chair; Stanford’s Marc-Tessiere Lavigne is the third member.)
So, how should we interpret the collection of recent public utterances that presented an optimistic tone for the future of the Pac-12?
In combination, they sent the Hotline back to a familiar conclusion:
1. By this point in the negotiating process, Kliavkoff assuredly has seen specific bids from the negotiating partners — if not the final numbers then at least the initial offers.
2. The public comments by Pac-12 athletic directors and presidents over the past few months are based on internal updates and external talking points provided by Kliavkoff.
3. Kliavkoff would never send campus officials into the public sphere with a bright-and-shiny outlook if the internal reality — based on having seen the numbers — suggested doom-and-gloom.
Which means we are headed to one of two outcomes, folks:
— The picture painted by Kliavkoff during executive meetings is accurate, and the conference indeed will end up “in the right place.”
— Kliavkoff has completely misinterpreted the numbers and misread the position of his negotiating partners after all these months.
The latter is possible, of course. Until there’s a deal, we cannot dismiss that scenario.
But the former seems more likely.
*** Send suggestions, comments and tips (confidentiality guaranteed) to pac12hotline@bayareanewsgroup.com or call 408-920-5716
*** Follow me on Twitter: @WilnerHotline
*** Pac-12 Hotline is not endorsed or sponsored by the Pac-12 Conference, and the views expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the views of the Conference.
Want more sports news? Sign up for the Sports Omelette to get all our analysis on Denver’s teams.