The Pac-12 dissolved 13 months ago, but one vestige of the former conference remains relevant to the college football season unfolding this fall: the bowl lineup.
The legacy teams are tied to the same postseason arrangement that existed prior to collapse, albeit with one critical change. Instead of using conference record to establish the pecking order, overall record is the determinant.
Each week, the Hotline will project and assess the postseason status for all 12 teams.
Week 1 is made for overreactions, so here’s ours: Arizona is bowl-bound.
That’s right. After one victory, we are slotting the Wildcats into the postseason and not giving the decision a second thought.
It’s based on two interconnected factors:
— The Wildcats looked sharper, faster, tougher and better prepared Saturday night in the 40-6 victory over Hawaii than at any point last season.
Nobody will confuse Hawaii with a top-tier Big 12 opponent, but the Rainbow Warriors were playing their second game while the Wildcats were playing their first — a competitive advantage for the visitors that, to Arizona’s credit, never materialized.
Quarterback Noah Fifita bore some resemblance to his 2023 form and distributed the ball efficiently; the running game was effective; and the defense played with more energy and structure than we saw last year.
— Several upcoming opponents have been decidedly unimpressive, thus expanding Arizona’s margin for error.
If we assume a victory over Weber State this weekend, the Wildcats would need four wins in their final 10 games to qualify.
Kansas State hasn’t exactly looked like a Big 12 contender in the loss to Iowa State (in Ireland) and the great escape from North Dakota on Saturday. The critical Week 3 (non-conference) affair in Tucson is entirely winnable for Arizona.
Also appearing on the fair-to-middlin’ list of upcoming opponents: Oklahoma State, Houston, Colorado, Kansas, Cincinnati and Baylor.
Half of the six are at home and, perhaps more significantly, two opponents, Baylor and Colorado, play the Wildcats the weekend after they face the battering ram that is Utah.
And don’t forget: The Wildcats don’t need to win all six. Depending on the Kansas State result, they would need either three or four victories against that group to make the bowl math work.
From what we have seen thus far, that’s well within reason.
To the projections …
College Football Playoff
Team: Utah (Big 12 champ)
Comment: The Utes look like the team to beat in the Big 12, and the winner has an automatic bid to the CFP waiting at the end of the journey, although not necessarily an opening-round bye. Unlike last year, the top four seeds are assigned to the highest-ranked teams, regardless of conference finish. Something tells us the Utes would rather have a lower seed if it means playing a home game.
College Football Playoff
Team: Oregon (Big Ten at-large)
Comment: The path to the Big Ten championship is more treacherous this season. But at this point, there’s no reason to believe the Ducks won’t finish among the top three or four in the conference race. That should be enough for an at-large berth.
Alamo Bowl
Team: USC
Comment: The Trojans have never participated in the 32-year-old Alamo Bowl and would undoubtedly be high on the wish list if they win eight or nine games and don’t make the CFP. For now, we consider that a reasonable scenario.
Las Vegas Bowl
Team: Arizona State
Comment: The Sun Devils have done nothing to suggest they won’t repeat as Big 12 champs and return to the CFP. But the Hotline views their path as extremely narrow — so many things have to break right for the second consecutive year — and envisions second or third place as a likely landing spot.
Holiday Bowl
Team: Washington
Comment: The last time UW spent the holidays at the Holiday was five head coaches ago, in 2010. They were invited at the end of Steve Sarkisian’s second season, with a 6-6 record, and beat Nebraska. Odd fact: Since UW’s last appearance, Washington State has gone to the Holiday three times.
Sun Bowl
Team: Cal
Comment: There is plenty of buzz over freshman quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele’s performance in the victory at Oregon State, and with the moderately difficult ACC schedule, the Bears very well could climb into a top-tier Pac-12 bowl. But we need to see a bit more from Sagapolutele and his receivers before slotting Cal into the Las Vegas or Holiday bowls.
LA Bowl
Team: Arizona
Comment: Another notable point about the schedule: Brigham Young visits Tucson the week before the Holy War against Utah, thus turning the Oct. 11 date in Arizona Stadium into a potential trap game.
ESPN bowl (First Responders, Armed Forces, etc.)
Team: Oregon State
Comment: The Beavers looked nothing like a postseason team in their lopsided home loss to Cal, but keep the following in mind: The second half of their schedule is ridiculously soft, with two dates with Washington State and one each with Lafayette, Tulsa and Sam Houston. They can reach six wins even with a 1-6 start.
Non-qualifier
Team: Colorado
Comment: After the loss to Georgia Tech, we programmed the Hotline’s supercomputer to run 10,000 simulations of CU’s season. In 5,001 instances, the Buffaloes failed to qualify. On the bright side, one simulation produced a 10-win season.
Non-qualifier
Team: Stanford
Comment: The opener in Honolulu was arguably the most winnable game on the schedule.
Non-qualifier
Team: UCLA
Comment: The opener would not have gone any worse with Joey Aguilar at quarterback, instead of Nico Iamaleava, and the Bruins would have more NIL cash available for other positions.
Non-qualifier
Team: Washington State
Comment: The Cougars have a vastly more difficult schedule than Oregon State and more holes in their depth chart. If they are alive in the bowl chase in early November, first-year coach Jimmy Rogers will have done masterful work.
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