The Pac-12 dissolved 14 months ago, but one vestige of the former conference remains relevant to the college football season unfolding this fall: the bowl lineup. The legacy teams are tied to the same postseason arrangement that existed prior to collapse, albeit with one critical change. Instead of using conference record to establish the pecking order, overall record is the determinant.
Each week, the Hotline will project and assess the postseason status for all 12 teams. Last week’s projections can be found here.
USC has never been viewed as a particularly magnanimous institution across the Pac-12’s former footprint — not before the demise of the century-old conference and certainly not after it, given the Trojans’ role as instigator.
But USC did everyone a favor last week with another blown fourth-quarter lead in another Big Ten road loss. When Illinois’ walk-off field goal cleared the goalpost Saturday afternoon, it set the stage for a chain reaction featuring Notre Dame, and that could benefit every bowl-eligible Pac-12 legacy team.
As an Independent, the Irish have one path into the College Football Playoff: If they are inside the top 12 of the final CFP rankings, an at-large berth is guaranteed. And there are only seven at-large spots.
Notre Dame is one of 136 teams in major college football but, thanks to a carve-out in the selection process, has direct access to one of seven at-large berths.
Of course, the Irish have to earn it by finishing in the top 12.
They already have two losses. One more, and their chances are bleak. Even a process steeped in brand bias would not place the Irish in the field if they finish 9-3.
But at 10-2, they would be squarely on the bubble. Their resume would be compared to two- and three-loss teams from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC by the selection committee. Their schedule strength would be assessed. Their quality wins would be evaluated.
Which is where USC’s loss to Illinois enters the chat.
The Trojans were the only ranked team on Notre Dame’s remaining schedule — the only opportunity to secure a premium victory that would become the cornerstone of its case for playoff inclusion.
When USC lost to Illinois and dropped from the AP Top 25, the Irish lost their last best chance to collect a victory over a ranked opponent. (Their two wins thus far are against Purdue and Arkansas, and their remaining schedule features Boise State, Navy and a bevy of mediocre ACC teams.)
Put another way: USC’s loss could be the result that keeps Notre Dame out of the CFP.
And if the Irish are not involved, the at-large field expands for everyone else.
That extra spot could go to a three-loss team from the SEC or Big Ten.
It could go to a two-loss team from the ACC or Big 12 — perhaps Utah, or maybe Arizona State.
And if that extra at-large berth goes to a Pac-12 legacy team, the upward movement would allow all the other bowl-eligible teams to jump one rung on the bowl ladder.
A team scheduled for the Sun Bowl could jump to the Holiday.
A team slotted for the Las Vegas Bowl could climb into the Alamo.
Admittedly, the downstream implications of USC’s loss to Illinois — from the direct impact on Notre Dame to the indirect effect on all the bowl-eligible teams affiliated with the Pac-12 games — are difficult to pinpoint at the moment. But by December, that single result could loom large over the postseason landscape.
To the bowl projections …
College Football Playoff
Team: Oregon (Big Ten champion)
Comment: We have switched the Ducks (5-0) from CFP at-large participant to automatic qualifier. If they are good enough to win in Happy Valley — and control the game for three quarters — they are plenty good enough to win the Big Ten.
Alamo Bowl
Team: USC
Comment: The key number for the Trojans, it seems, is eight: If they finish with eight wins, the Alamo should have the option to extend an invitation under the terms of the Pac-12 bowl selection process. (Overall record, not conference record, is the determinant.) And if the Alamo has the option to grab USC (4-1), which has never participated, it will.
Las Vegas Bowl
Team: Arizona State
Comment: From the collection of teams we project to finish in the 9-3/8-4 range — excluding USC, for reasons noted above — the Sun Devils (4-1) are the best bet for a bid to Sin City. Also, the Big Ten fills the other side of the matchup in odd years, meaning the bowl would have more opponent options with ASU or Utah than with Washington.
Holiday Bowl
Team: Washington
Comment: Four difficult games remain on the schedule, starting this week with a cross-country trip to Maryland. If the Huskies (4-1) split the quartet, they would finish 9-3 — assuming they win the games they should win — and be positioned for any bowl below the CFP.
Sun Bowl
Team: Utah
Comment: Good spot to remind fans of a stipulation in the selection process: The so-called one-win-down rule. Bowls can pass over Team X in favor of Team Y as long as there is no more than a one-game difference in overall record. So if the Utes (4-1) finish with one more victory than Washington, for example, the Holiday could opt for UW — and probably would, given that the Huskies haven’t participated in 15 years.
LA Bowl
Team: Arizona
Comment: If the Wildcats (3-1) lose to Oklahoma State, they will appear in the non-qualifier section of next week’s bowl projections — and will probably remain there for the duration of the season.
ESPN bowl
Team: Washington State
Comment: Yep, the Cougars (3-2) are back in the bowl picture. We have seen more than enough from quarterback Zevi Eckhaus — and from WSU’s upcoming opponents, particularly Oregon State — to expect three more wins. (The pool of ESPN games available to Pac-12 legacy teams includes the Armed Forces, First Responders and Gasparilla Bowls.)
ESPN bowl
Team: Cal
Comment: We aren’t sure winning at Boston College completely offsets losing at San Diego State, but the bowl math is exponentially easier for the Bears at 4-1 than it would have been at 3-2. Linebacker Luke Ferrelli’s end zone interception with 15 seconds left to secure the victory was mammoth.
Non-qualifier
Team: Colorado
Comment: You no longer need to squint to see the faint outlines of a winless Big 12 season for the Buffaloes, who are 2-3 overall but 0-2 in conference play. Something in the 2-7/3-6 range might seem more reasonable, but the Big 12 is full of surprises.
Non-qualifier
Team: Oregon State
Comment: At their current rate, the Beavers (0-5) will be eliminated from bowl contention Oct. 11.
Non-qualifier
Team: Stanford
Comment: The 10-point victory over Boston College looks better with age for the Cardinal (2-3), as does the 28-point loss at Virginia.
Non-qualifier
Team: UCLA
Comment: At their current rate, the Bruins (0-4) will be eliminated from bowl contention Oct. 18.
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