The Hotline mailbag is published each Friday. Send questions to pac12hotline@bayareanewsgroup.com or hit me on Twitter: @WilnerHotline. Due to volume — and in some cases, the need for research — not all questions will be answered the week of submission. Thanks for your understanding.
Some questions have been edited for clarity and brevity.
Does the (near) universal outrage over the first College Football Playoff rankings give the Alliance and/or Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff any leverage for automatic qualifiers (AQs) in an expanded playoff? It would greatly reduce the selection committee’s role if half (or more) spots aren’t voted in. — @TrefzgerSpencer
The rankings released this week don’t add leverage to the Pac-12’s case so much as they add fuel to the Group of Five’s pursuit of AQs — and that’s why the eight-team model is extremely unlikely.
The SEC has been clear in its opposition to an eight-team model that includes AQs, and for good reason: With berths reserved for each Power Five champ and a team from the Group of Five, there would be just two at-large slots. The access for the SEC would be no greater than it is now.
But the Group of Five is staunchly opposed to an eight-team model without AQs, for fear of being left out — a fear that seems entirely justified given how the committee treated Cincinnati this week.
So basically, we’d have a standoff: The SEC vs. the Group of Five, with each capable of blocking expansion.
Some conferences are opposed to a 12-team model, but not as firmly as the SEC or Group of Five is opposed to eight.
The Pac-12 hasn’t formally stated its position, which is probably smart. Kliavkoff needs to retain all the leverage and influence possible.
My sense is the conference favors 12 teams over eight teams, so long as certain details are met with regard to the schedule and the media partnerships.
But this much should be abundantly clear to anyone affiliated with the conference: If we see a major boardroom upset and the eight-team model gains traction, the Pac-12 cannot accept any format that doesn’t include AQs for the Power Five champions.
The proof is staring us in the face.
Were the eight-team model in place this season with no AQs, then the Pac-12 would be one Oregon loss away from getting shut out.
As the 10-2 champs of what’s considered a weak league, the Ducks assuredly would be nudged aside. The SEC and Big Ten would gobble up four or five bids, with a one-loss Big 12 champ, one-loss Notre Dame and zero-loss Cincinnati taking the remaining slots.
And the Pac-12 would have no replacement for Oregon because everyone else has at least three losses.
In summation:
— The eight-team model is extremely unlikely.
— The Pac-12 should support the 12-team format.
— If this thing lands on eight, the Pac-12 must fight for AQs.
And that would place it in direct opposition to the SEC.
What’s going on in terms of the alliance scheduling? And what about for basketball? Also, any news about Pac-12 media contract negotiations that should be happening at some point? — @Jack16084381
The Pac-12 media negotiations likely will begin in 12-15 months. The current contract runs through the spring of 2024. Most new agreements are signed and sealed at least a year in advance, after negotiations that last months.
With that timeline, the exclusive window for ESPN and Fox to negotiate probably begins in December ’22 or January ’23. If the parties don’t come to an agreement, then the rights would head to the open market in February or March of ’23, with a final deal in place by April or May.
(Note: These dates are approximations.)
As for the alliance scheduling …
We addressed that issue in the mailbag last week: Much depends on the Big Ten’s media rights negotiations, which should begin soon given the 2023 expiration date.
Have you shared my eight-game conference schedule plan with Kliavkoff yet? What does he think? No divisions, two permanent rivalries per team, six-year full rotation (better than the current eight year). — @DouglasTS
I have not shared it with him. But I’m fairly sure that the Pac-12 would scrap the divisions if it drops to eight conference games.
Why do Pac-12 schools minus Oregon not make recruiting a priority? At least ASU tried to do it. This conference has such a talent drain that every school should be investing everything it can in recruiting. — Mo Elashry
Arizona State’s situation aside, I would say the other programs do make recruiting a priority and are plowing as many resources as possible into it.
As I wrote in 2019, Cristobal takes a next-level, SEC approach to recruiting.
Let’s say Oregon offensive coordinator Joe Moorhead gets a head coaching job after this season. Should Oregon rehire Mark Helfrich as its playcaller? — @trintran
That might be an awkward situation, employing your former head coach as the play-caller.
Cristobal replaced the coach (Willie Taggart) who replaced Helfrich, but still — can’t imagine anyone would be comfortable with that.
From the perspective of Pac-12 coaches, who is considered the most likable (respected) coach in the conference? — @johnjosephhardy
Those are two different things.
I don’t know which coach would win a popularity contest, but my guess is that Kyle Whittingham or David Shaw would be deemed the most respected.
Nobody knows better than head coaches the difficulty of sustaining success over eight, 10 or 12 years. Whittingham and Shaw have done that.
But coaches are also keenly aware of disparity in infrastructure, resources and recruiting brands. In that regard, there might be some support for Oregon State’s Jonathan Smith.
Odds on Los Angeles-area native Jonathan Smith going to USC after this season? — @KentBrockman1A
Seems unlikely on several fronts:
— By the end of this season, will Smith have attained enough success at Oregon State to clear the acceptable standard for employment at USC?
Forget about the quality of his coaching, the Trojans need to present a proven winner to their frustrated constituents. Would one winning season in Corvallis be enough for Smith?
— Smith is from Pasadena but has spent his adult life (as a player and coach) in the Pacific Northwest.
Is he ready to leave his alma mater to return to Southern California and deal with all the media and lifestyle issues that come with the USC job?
I can’t answer that, but it strikes me as an essential piece of the scenario you outlined.
Can you explain UCLA coach Chip Kelly’s loyalty to defensive coordinator Jerry Azzinaro? — @notMPA
They have known each other for decades, and Kelly must believe 1) Azzinaro is a quality coach and 2) the issues UCLA is having defensively cannot be traced entirely to Azzinaro’s coaching.
That’s all I’ve got for you.
Why do you hate Washington? — @yarddawg
There’s no hate, but with the Huskies as with every other program: We call ’em like we see ’em.
That’s why the Hotline is willing to publicly support Lake’s return for 2022 — in the face of the wrath of the #UWlunaticfringe — but criticize him for the comments about Oregon. Separate issues.
What’s a better job nationally? Washington State or Texas Tech? — @chrisolson23
Depends on the timing.
Right now? Washington State.
Let’s take the last quarter century:
— Texas Tech has won 10 or more games once, under Mike Leach in 2008.
— WSU has won 10 or more games four times, under three different coaches (Leach, Bill Doba and Mike Price).
That would suggest it’s easier to win at a high level in Pullman than Lubbock.
But in the reconfigured Big 12, Texas Tech might be the better job. Without Oklahoma and Texas, the path to the playoff should be wider for TTU than it will be for Washington State.
Is it fair to assume by the end of the season we will see at least five Pac-12 coaches fired? — @TheRealK333
Two have been fired already (USC’s Clay Helton and WSU’s Nick Rolovich), and we could see two more: Arizona State’s Herm Edwards, because of the recruiting scandal, and UCLA’s Chip Kelly, because of performance.
But I’m not sure about a fifth dismissal.
There could be a fifth vacancy, if someone leaves on his own volition. But I don’t believe the coaches experiencing substandard seasons (Washington’s Jimmy Lake, Colorado’s Karl Dorrell, Cal’s Justin Wilcox) are in danger of getting fired.
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