The Big 12 power rankings are published weekly by the Hotline throughout the regular season. They are the result of a deep dive into the analytics, an assessment of subjective factors and, when necessary, flips of the coin. No conference has more parity. The parity leads to chaos, and the chaos creates an endlessly compelling product that is not always easy to unscramble.
(Here are last week’s rankings.)
The Big 12 on Saturday completed a critical line on the resume that will help determine the conference’s fate in the College Football Playoff selection process.
With victories by TCU over SMU and Central Florida over North Carolina, the conference produced an 8-6 record against teams from the ACC, Big Ten and SEC.
The winning record in a closely watched metric should bolster the Big 12’s standing when the selection committee begins meeting in November to assess the relative merits of teams contending for at-large berths.
The Big 12 has secured a better record than both the ACC, which is 5-12 against power conference opponents, and the Big Ten, which is a mere 5-6 with one game remaining (USC at Notre Dame).
Within that unofficial but important competition, the Big 12 was 6-1 head-to-head against the ACC, 2-2 against the Big Ten and 0-3 against the SEC.
Its best win over Power Four opposition? Probably Iowa State’s 16-13 victory over Iowa.
(The SEC owns the best mark, 10-3, in matchups involving teams from the Power Four and Notre Dame.)
However, the Big 12’s overall resume is less than sparkling due to three unseemly losses to teams from the Group of Five leagues: Oklahoma State to Tulsa, West Virginia to Ohio and Kansas State to Army.
It doesn’t help the Big 12’s narrative that defending champion Arizona State tumbled at Mississippi State, which finished last in the SEC in 2024, and that Oklahoma State lost by 66 points at Oregon.
It’s impossible to directly connect the dots from the 8-6 record against Power Four foes to the fate of a two-loss Big 12 team in the CFP selection process. There are too many variables and too many secrets — the selection committee offers a limited amount of transparency and, over the years, has been subject to brand bias and media pressure.
But ESPN will inevitably display the intra-Power Four records during its influential studio show (if only to underscore the SEC’s dominance).
And when it does, the Big 12 will be in the second position, looking down on both the Big Ten and ACC.
In theory, that should count for something.
To the power rankings …
1. Texas Tech (4-0/1-0)
Result: won at Utah 34-10
Next up: idle
Comment: Clearly, it was money well spent. (Previous: 3)
2. Iowa State (4-0/1-0)
Result: did not play
Next up: vs. Arizona (4 p.m. on ESPN)
Comment: The Cyclones don’t play Texas Tech, unless they meet in the conference championship game, thereby depriving us of a matchup between starkly contrasting approaches to roster building in the era of NIL and the transfer portal. (Previous: 1)
3. Arizona State (3-1/1-0)
Result: won at Baylor 27-24
Next up: vs. TCU (Friday at 6 p.m. on Fox)
Comment: If Mississippi State was a game the Sun Devils lost but deserved to win, then Baylor was a game they won but deserved to lose — and it all balances out in the end. (Previous: 5)
4. TCU (3-0/0-0)
Result: beat SMU 35-24
Next up: at Arizona State (Friday at 6 p.m. on Fox)
Comment: The Horned Frogs don’t play UCF this season. If they did, TCU could be considered a nine-point favorite based on the margin of each team’s victory (34 points compared to 25) over North Carolina. (Previous: 4)
5. Baylor (2-2/0-1)
Result: lost to Arizona State 27-24
Next up: at Oklahoma State (12:30 p.m. on ESPN2)
Comment: The seat heat in Waco — once extreme, now comfortable — will begin to climb again if the Bears lose this week. (Previous: 6)
6. Houston (3-0/1-0)
Result: did not play
Next up: at Oregon State (Friday at 7:30 p.m. on ESPN)
Comment: There is still time to join the Hotline on the Houston bandwagon. All are welcome. (Previous: 7)
7. Utah (3-1/0-1)
Result: lost to Texas Tech 34-10
Next up: at West Virginia (12:30 p.m. on Fox)
Comment: From this corner of the college football galaxy, it sure seems like the entire game would have been different if All-American tackle Spencer Fano hadn’t committed that illegal-man-downfield penalty on the 69-yard completion to Jackson Bennee midway through the first quarter. (Previous: 2)
8. Brigham Young (3-0/0-0)
Result: won at East Carolina 34-13
Next up: at Colorado (7:15 p.m. on ESPN)
Comment: The defense is good enough to contend for the Big 12 title; the offense is good enough to contend for a berth in the Rate Bowl. Maybe that changes in the next two months … or maybe it doesn’t. (Previous: 8)
9. Arizona (3-0/0-0)
Result: did not play
Next up: at Iowa State (4 p.m. on ESPN)
Comment: The disparity in talent between the Cyclones and Wildcats is modest. But will Arizona play with the discipline, toughness and efficiency needed to keep pace with one of the best-coached teams in the country? (Previous: 9)
10. Kansas (3-1/1-0)
Result: beat West Virginia 41-10
Next up: vs. Cincinnati (9 a.m. on TNT)
Comment: What was true weeks ago remains true today: The Jayhawks must stack wins now, because the second half of their schedule is wicked. (Previous: 10)
11. Colorado (2-2/0-1)
Result: beat Wyoming 37-20
Next up: vs. Brigham Young (7:15 p.m. on ESPN)
Comment: Wonder if Deion Sanders wishes his Ryan Staub-is-the-answer-at-QB maneuver had never happened. Actually, we’re pretty sure that’s exactly what he’s wishing. (Previous: 12)
12. UCF (3-0/0-0)
Result: beat North Carolina 34-9
Next up: at Kansas State (9 a.m. on FS1)
Comment: After handling North, Central now faces State. And then, in two weeks, comes West. Later in the season, Central plays Tech, and then another State followed by Brigham. (Previous: 13)
13. Cincinnati (2-1/0-0)
Result: did not play
Next up: at Kansas (9 a.m. on TNT)
Comment: The Bearcats need four more wins for a bowl berth. They will be favored once or twice. That’s what we call bad math. (Previous: 11)
14. West Virginia (2-2/0-1)
Result: lost at Kansas 41-10
Next up: vs. Utah (12:30 p.m. on Fox)
Comment: The Backyard Brawl took a lot out of the Mountaineers, it seems, both on the front end and the back end. (Previous: 14)
15. Kansas State (1-3/0-1)
Result: did not play
Next up: vs. UCF (9 a.m. on FS1)
Comment: On the bright side, it’s impossible for Avery Johnson’s skills to be misused when the Wildcats are idle. (Previous: 15)
16. Oklahoma State (1-2/0-0)
Result: lost to Tulsa 19-12
Next up: vs. Baylor (12:30 p.m. on ESPN2)
Comment: We had expected news over the weekend, UCLA-style. (Previous: 16)
*** Send suggestions, comments and tips (confidentiality guaranteed) to wilnerhotline@bayareanewsgroup.com or call 408-920-5716
*** Follow me on the social media platform X: @WilnerHotline
Want more sports news? Sign up for the Sports Omelette to get all our analysis on Denver’s teams.