The Big 12 power rankings are published weekly by the Hotline throughout the regular season. They are the result of a deep dive into the analytics, an assessment of subjective factors and, when necessary, flips of the coin. No conference has more parity. The parity leads to chaos, and the chaos creates an endlessly compelling product that is not always easy to unscramble.
(Here are last week’s rankings.)
We are two weeks from the midpoint of the Big 12 race — plenty of time for presumptions to flip and mass mayhem to strike a conference defined by its unpredictability.
But the sample size is large enough for clarity to emerge in one important regard: the degree of variance in stretch-run schedules for the (apparent) title contenders.
With 16 teams and only nine conference games, the list of opponents missed is as important as the lineup of opponents played. Location matters. Sequencing matters. Byes matter.
The Hotline took a deep dive into the remaining schedules for the seven teams we believe possess the best chance to reach the conference championship: Arizona State, BYU, Cincinnati, Iowa State, TCU, Texas Tech and Utah (listed alphabetically).
Our research uncovered distinct ends of the spectrum — the toughest and easiest schedules — with a clutter of teams in the middle.
The toughest remaining schedule? That’s easy. It belongs to BYU.
Five of the Cougars’ seven remaining games are against teams that look like contenders.
They host Utah and TCU, along with UCF. But the road lineup is what pushes BYU’s schedule to the next level: Arizona, Iowa State, Texas Tech and Cincinnati, which have a combined record of 18-3.
In order to reach the conference title game, which could involve winning a multi-step tiebreaker, the Cougars (5-0/2-0) probably need to win five of their final seven. Even with a sweep of the home games, they must split on the road.
At the other end of the schedule-strength range? Hello, Texas Tech.
Yep, the program with the $30 million roster has a gilded path to Arlington.
OK, that’s an overstatement. But we’d rather be the Red Raiders than anyone else based solely on the opponents and location of games.
The Red Raiders play four at home and three on the road and face just two teams that we would consider contenders:
— Home games: Kansas, Oklahoma State, BYU and UCF.
— Road games: ASU, Kansas State and West Virginia.
Only the trip to Tempe in two weeks and BYU’s visit to Lubbock stand as serious obstacles. The Red Raiders (5-0/2-0) will be heavily favored in the other five games.
The secret sauce: Texas Tech doesn’t play Iowa State, Utah or Cincinnati.
It’s not all about the schedule misses, but that’s a huge factor in determining the shape of the race.
To the power rankings …
All times Pacific
1. Texas Tech (5-0/2-0)
Result: won at Houston 35-11
Next up: vs. Kansas (4:30 p.m. on Fox)
Comment: Only four teams are in the top 15 nationally in most yards-per-play gained and fewest yards-per-play allowed: Ohio State, Oregon, Indiana and Texas Tech. (Previous: 1)
2. Arizona State (4-1/2-0)
Result: did not play
Next up: at Utah (7:15 p.m. on ESPN)
Comment: The game of the year in the Big 12 very well could be Texas Tech’s trip to ASU on Oct. 18, particularly if the Sun Devils don’t stumble this week in Salt Lake City. And even if they lose to the Utes, there will be plenty at stake when the Red Raiders arrive. (Previous: 3)
3. TCU (4-1/1-1)
Result: beat Colorado 35-21
Next up: at Kansas State (12:30 p.m. on Fox)
Comment: It’s not TCU’s fault that the Fightin’ Belichicks stink. But has a season-opening victory ever lost as much luster so quickly? The Horned Frogs might as well have played East Carolina instead of North Carolina for all the benefit that result has brought to their resume. (Previous: 4)
4. BYU (5-0/2-0)
Result: beat West Virginia 38-24
Next up: at Arizona (5 p.m. on ESPN2)
Comment: The Cougars have looked the part of a contender, especially on defense, but their two Big 12 victims thus far (West Virginia and Colorado) are 0-6 in conference play. Not only is the jury out, the jury has not even been selected. (Previous: 6)
5. Cincinnati (4-1/2-0)
Result: beat Iowa State 38-30
Next up: vs. UCF (9 a.m. on FS1)
Comment: The search to identify this year’s version of Arizona State is nearing a conclusion thanks in large part to Cincinnati’s stellar running game and junior quarterback Brendan Sorsby, who has thrown 12 touchdowns and one interception. (Previous: 10)
6. Iowa State (5-1/2-1)
Result: lost at Cincinnati 38-30
Next up: at Colorado (12:30 p.m. on ESPN)
Comment: Back-to-back road games are never easy, but the Cyclones catch a break with CU floundering. Then it’s BYU, Arizona State and TCU in triple-whammy fashion. Lose twice in that stretch, and a return to the Big 12 championship could be out of reach. (Previous: 2)
7. Utah (4-1/1-1)
Result: did not play
Next up: vs. ASU (7:15 p.m. on ESPN)
Comment: What was true when Texas Tech visited Rice-Eccles remains true today: The Utes cannot win unless Devon Dampier consistently completes passes downfield and the receivers gobble yards in chunks. Until we see it, we’re deeply skeptical. (Previous: 5)
8. Baylor (4-2/2-1)
Result: beat Kansas State 35-34
Next up: idle
Comment: Yes, SMU is 3-2, but we’d argue that Baylor’s best result thus far is the 27-24 loss to Arizona State. Put another way: The Bears have been slightly underwhelming thus far. (Previous: 7)
9. Arizona (4-1/1-1)
Result: beat Oklahoma State 41-13
Next up: vs. BYU (5 p.m. on ESPN2)
Comment: Here come the 18th-ranked Cougars in what stands as the biggest game of the Brent Brennan era in Tucson. And the game-within-the-game to watch is Arizona playcaller Seth Doege against BYU defensive coordinator Jay Hill, one of the best in the conference. (Previous: 9)
10. Kansas (4-2/2-1)
Result: won at UCF 27-20
Next up: at Texas Tech (4:30 p.m. on Fox)
Comment: Sneaky-good opportunity for the Jayhawks to catch the Red Raiders peeking ahead to their showdown with ASU. Were this game in Lawrence, it would have all the trappings of a trap game. But can KU execute well enough long enough in Lubbock? Probably not. (Previous: 11)
11. Houston (4-1/1-1)
Result: lost to Texas Tech 35-11
Next up: at Oklahoma State (9 a.m. on TNT)
Comment: So it appears the Cougars are not ready for prime time, which is fine — it’s only Year 2 of the Willie Fritz era and there are at least four more wins available given the schedule. (Previous: 8)
12. Kansas State (2-4/1-2)
Result: lost at Baylor 35-34
Next up: vs. TCU (12:30 p.m. on Fox)
Comment: The Hotline has been conducting two searches at once: For this year’s versions of ASU (upside surprise) and Oklahoma State (unexpected collapse). We thought the Wildcats were a candidate in the latter category, but they appear to be stabilizing. (Previous: 12)
13. Colorado (2-4/0-3)
Result: lost at TCU 35-21
Next up: vs. Iowa State (12:30 p.m. on ESPN)
Comment: All the best to Deion Sanders, whose health situation — “I think I got more blood clots,” he said Saturday — seemingly creates the possibility of an in-season leave of absence. (Previous: 13)
14. UCF (3-2/0-2)
Result: lost to Kansas 27-20
Next up: at Cincinnati (9 a.m. on FS1)
Comment: In case anyone forgot the challenge facing Scott Frost 2.0 in Orlando, the loss to KU served as a reminder the Knights won’t be fixed in one season. (Previous: 14)
15. West Virginia (2-4/0-3)
Result: lost at BYU 38-24
Next up: idle
Comment: They’ll always have Pittsburgh, at least. Seriously, the Mountaineers might not win another game, but they got the one that mattered most. (Previous: 15)
16. Oklahoma State (1-4/0-2)
Result: lost at Arizona 41-13
Next up: vs. Houston (9 a.m. on TNT)
Comment: Some teams rally behind an interim head coach (hello, UCLA). And then there’s Oklahoma State. (Previous: 16)
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