Commissioner Brett Yormark is expected to address all the hottest topics in college sports next Tuesday during his state-of-the-conference remarks at the Big 12’s football media extravaganza in Frisco, Texas.
His list undoubtedly includes future College Football Playoff formats, the newly created College Sports Commission designed to enforce revenue-sharing and NIL, potential NCAA Tournament expansion and why the Big 12 opted against publishing a preseason media poll this summer.
While killing the media poll seemingly doesn’t carry the same weight as other topics on Yormark’s agenda, it possesses sneaky significance for the sport writ large.
In fact, the move is directly connected to one of the most controversial topics in college football: The Big Ten’s push for multiple automatic bids to the CFP starting in 2026.
The so-called 4-4-2-2-1 model grants the Big Ten and SEC four automatic bids each year, regardless of regular-season results, with the ACC and Big 12 getting two automatic bids, one going to the top-ranked team outside the power conferences and three for at-large teams.
The proposal, which generated staunch resistance from the ACC and Big 12, is rooted in distrust of the CFP selection committee’s opaque process that often seems to focus more on the number of losses than on strength-of-schedule.
Big Ten commissioner Tony Petitti wants to schedule more high-level games — perhaps including an annual crossover series with the SEC — but is seeking multiple automatic bids as protection for his teams in the event they incur additional defeats.
That same wariness seemingly exists in the Big 12, just with a different vehicle: the elimination of the preseason media poll. (See Note 1 below.)
In its revamped form, without Texas and Oklahoma as the bluebloods gobbling attention, the Big 12 is jammed with parity that creates drama and chaos on a weekly basis. Any team can rise to the top in a given season — just as Arizona State did in 2024 after being picked last in the preseason media poll.
But some observers might not view parity as a blessing. Some might see a stigma that goes something like this: If the team picked last by the media can win the conference, it must not be a very good conference.
The Sun Devils were nowhere to be found in the 2024 Associated Press preseason poll, and with good reason: They had a first-year quarterback (Sam Leavitt) with a second-year coach (Kenny Dillingham) and were coming off a three-win season.
Despite winning five of their first six games, the Sun Devils didn’t enter the AP poll until mid-November, after a Week 12 victory at Kansas State pushed their record to 8-2. (See Note 2 below.)
Granted, the AP poll has no bearing on the CFP … unless you believe it influences the selection process that determines both the at-large bids and the seeds.
The committee doesn’t release its initial weekly rankings until early November, which, in theory, prevents preseason bias from creeping into the process. And yet, the first CFP rankings of 2024, on Tuesday, Nov. 5, were eerily similar to the AP poll released just two days earlier.
It wasn’t an ASU-specific issue, either. Several Big 12 teams seemed to receive the same treatment from the committee as the pollsters.
Big 12 teams in Nov. 3 AP poll/Nov. 5 CFP rankings:
Brigham Young: 9th/9th
Iowa State: 17th/17th
Colorado: 21st/20th
Kansas State: 22nd/19th
Arizona State: Not ranked/Not ranked
One group had been voting each week, with preseason bias baked into some, if not most of the ballots; the other group purportedly started from scratch in early November, with fresh eyes and reams of data and a healthy internal debate.
Yet it sure seems like the committee’s mindset was influenced by the poll placement.
Or consider the similar placements of the Sun Devils in the weekly CFP rankings compared to the AP poll.
Week 10
AP: Not ranked
CFP: Not ranked
Week 11
AP: Not ranked
CFP: Not ranked
Week 12
AP: 21st
CFP: 21st
Week 13
AP: 14th
CFP: 16th
Week 14
AP: 12th
CFP: 15th
Week 15
AP: 10th
CFP: 12th
All of which suggests Arizona State’s last-place projection in the Big 12 preseason media poll undoubtedly impacted its position in the AP poll as the season progressed. And it would appear the skepticism carried over to the CFP selection committee.
Put another way: Had Utah, which was picked to win the Big 12 last summer and slotted No. 12 in the AP preseason poll, produced exactly the same set of results as ASU throughout the fall, the Utes assuredly would have received better treatment by the pollsters in November. And by the committee, as well.
Big 12 executives surely leaned into more data than we are presenting before eliminating the preseason poll.
But the Hotline has been voting in the AP poll for decades and will attest to the fact that, despite best intentions, preseason bias can linger for weeks. (Often, the disparity in schedules makes comparing teams difficult until conference play ramps up.)
There are several crucial differences:
• AP voters don’t have unlimited data or other perspectives available to fill gaps in knowledge.
• AP voters don’t have the advantage of a completely blank slate from which to craft a 25-team ranking in early November.
• AP voters aren’t tasked with selecting something as important as the CFP field.
The committee shouldn’t view the respective teams in the same fashion as the AP voters. And yet it appeared to treat the Big 12 teams — and the Big 12 champion, in particular — with a hefty dose of preseason bias.
The situation might be different if the Big 12 standings included a few big brands with an aura powerful enough to overcome preconceived notions. As currently constructed, it does not.
Given the likelihood that August pretenders will morph into November contenders — and given the lack of transparency in the CFP selection process — the Big 12’s preseason poll carries more risk than reward.
The bigger problem, folks, is the committee itself. We suspect the Big Ten would agree.
Note I: The Big 12 is considering a fan poll this season, according to a source, with a prize for the most accurate submission. The elimination of the preseason media poll was first reported by The Action Network.
Note 2: Jon Wilner votes in the AP poll. He first included the Sun Devils on his ballot in Week 7, following a win over Utah.
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