Welcome to a new feature on the Hotline — an assessment of the eight teams in the rebuilt Pac-12 as if they were competing in the conference this season. We’ll even recognize one lucky team as the regular-season champion. The power rankings will be published each Sunday throughout the regular season. (Here are last week’s rankings.)
(All times Pacific)
Not much was expected of Fresno State and San Diego State in their final season in the Mountain West. The Bulldogs were picked fifth in the preseason poll, the Aztecs eighth — reasonable projections that approximated their placement in the 2024 standings and reflected the roster challenges at hand.
But as they approach the midway point of a fall unlike any other, FSU and SDSU are collecting wins and momentum with surprising speed. And the timing couldn’t be better for their conference. For their new conference.
The Pac-12 is 11 months from the first season of its next iteration and in search of rocket fuel in the competition with the American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West and Sun Belt.
The highest-ranked team from that collection of six leagues will receive a berth in the College Football Playoff. Whether the CFP remains at 12 teams for the 2026 season or expands to 14 or 16, there will be a spot for the highest-ranked team outside the Power Four.
We knew Boise State would be a threat for the CFP, because the Broncos are invariably one of the top teams not attached to the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten or SEC.
Who else?
The refashioned Pac-12 can’t count on its founding schools, Oregon State and Washington State, to be instantly competitive, not given the state of their rosters and the tumult of the past few years.
Texas State? Perhaps the Bobcats will elevate their program once they slide over from the Sun Belt, but they are hardly a given to contend for the CFP bid.
Colorado State and Utah State can’t be considered immediate threats.
But the Aztecs (4-1) and Bulldogs (5-1) appear to be ramping up after a few mediocre seasons, and the timing couldn’t be better for the Pac-12 2.0.
After all, both programs possess the ingredients required (recruiting base, media markets and history) to succeed at the highest level of the sport’s second tier.
Both programs made shrewd hires on the coaching front, with San Diego State grabbing Sean Lewis two years ago and Fresno State putting Matt Entz in charge last winter.
Both programs have won at least nine games in seven of the past 10 years. They have the location and history needed to attract talent and have non-conference schedules with myriad opportunities for the type of breakthrough victories that supercharge CFP resumes.
The Bulldogs face USC next season and play Washington, Stanford, Texas Tech and Kansas in the 2027-30 window, according to FBSchedules.com. The Aztecs have UCLA, Missouri, Oklahoma and Arizona State in upcoming years.
For both programs, there is open road ahead. Boise State will be an obstacle, of course. But the rebuilt Pac-12 cannot count on the Broncos to carry the banner on the CFP stage every year and doesn’t have an obvious second contender.
It needs other programs to generate 10- or 11-win seasons with some regularity.
The old Pac-12 had Oregon and Washington and USC.
The new Pac-12 has Boise State and … who?
At just the right time, Fresno State and San Diego State are gaining traction as they make the transition.
To the power rankings …
1. Fresno State (5-1)
Result: beat Nevada 20-17
Next up: at Colorado State (Friday at 6 p.m. on CBSSN)
Comment: As we see it, the Bulldogs will be favored in five of their final six games, putting another 10-win season very much in play. Anything less than 9-3, in fact, would be a disappointment. (Previous: 1)
2. Boise State (3-2)
Result: lost at Notre Dame 28-7
Next up: vs. New Mexico (6:45 p.m. on FS1)
Comment: There are fewer guardrails when crafting power rankings for a conference that doesn’t exist. Moving a team up after a 21-point loss? Why not. Nobody else stakes a quality claim to the No. 2 spot. (Previous: 3)
3. Washington State (3-2)
Result: did not play
Next up: at Mississippi (9:45 a.m. on SEC Network)
Comment: Every remaining opponent has a winning record, except Oregon State. Good thing for the Cougars that they play OSU twice. A sweep might be the key to a postseason berth. (Previous: 4)
4. San Diego State (4-1)
Result: beat Colorado State 45-24
Next up: at Nevada (7:30 p.m. on CBSSN)
Comment: With each passing week, the blowout loss at Washington State in early September makes less sense. The Aztecs fell behind and did not handle it well. (Previous: 5)
5. Texas State (3-2)
Result: lost at Arkansas State 31-30
Next up: vs. Troy (5 p.m. on ESPN+)
Comment: We did not see the loss to ASU coming. The other ASU? Sure. That Week 3 defeat to the Sun Devils was easy to predict. But not the Sun Belt version of ASU. Not for a second. (Previous: 2)
6. Utah State (3-2)
Result: did not play
Next up: at Hawaii (8:59 p.m. on Spectrum Sports)
Comment: The Aggies would be well served by winning three of their next four, thereby wrapping up a bowl berth before the finishing stretch against UNLV, Fresno State and Boise State. (Previous: 6)
7. Colorado State (1-4)
Result: lost at San Diego State 45-24
Next up: vs. Fresno State (Friday at 6 p.m. on CBSSN)
Comment: If you lost track, know this: CSU’s lone victory is over Northern Colorado, and the Rams needed a touchdown in the final minute to secure it. The situation in Fort Collins looks to be deteriorating by the week. (Previous: 7)
8. Oregon State (0-6)
Result: lost at Appalachian State 27-23
Next up: vs. Wake Forest (12:30 p.m. on The CW)
Comment: At some point, it could become more expensive to keep coach Trent Bray than to fire him. We’ll recognize that point when we see it. But will Oregon State? (Previous: 8)
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