Colorado State (5-3, 3-0 in Mountain West) at Nevada (3-6, 0-3)
When/where: 6 p.m. Saturday/Mackay Stadium
TV/Radio: CBS Sports Network/Rams Radio Network
BetMGM Line: CSU -1.5, O/U 45.5
Weather: 38 degrees, partly cloudy
Three storylines
Playing for something big: The Rams are undefeated in conference play and sit atop the Mountain West standings alongside Boise State, which CSU doesn’t have on its regular-season schedule — meaning everything is in front of CSU. A Mountain West championship berth is on the table, with only one of the Rams’ four remaining opponents currently sporting a winning record (Fresno State). This is the season of relevance Jay Norvell’s been building toward. CSU can’t afford to miss it.
Rams defense flexing: After holding Air Force to 13 points a couple of weeks ago, all of which came in the fourth quarter, the Rams defense didn’t allow New Mexico in the end zone, as the Lobos mustered only two field goals. Valor Christian alum Gabe Kirschke has been a highlight of the defensive front’s pressure with 3.5 sacks on the year, while a secondary that showed some weakness in the waning minutes against Air Force bounced back against New Mexico. The challenge on Saturday will be dealing with a Nevada run game that ranks 36th in FBS at 187.6 yards per game. Former CU QB Brendon Lewis (68.9) and junior RB Savion Red (72.9) can both punish teams on the ground.
Run game identity: At the beginning of the season, the thought was that the Rams’ key to offensive success was through quarterback Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi and star wideout Tory Horton. But with Horton out with season-ending surgery following CSU’s win over San Jose State on Oct. 12, the passing game has taken a back seat. It’s become clear that Avery Morrow is the Rams’ most important offensive threat. He’s well on pace for a 1,000-yard season, with 711 yards already at 6.3 yards a pop. Facing a Nevada rush defense that’s middle-of-the-pack in FBS at 154.9 yards allowed per game, the grad student should have plenty of opportunities.
Predictions
Kyle Newman, sportswriter: CSU 35, Nevada 14
The Rams keep it rolling against Jay Norvell’s old school, which isn’t very good. Avery Morrow tops the 100-yard rushing mark for the fifth time in the last six games, and the CSU defense forces three turnovers, including a pivotal interception by Dom Jones late in the second half that leads to a quick score and allows the Rams to start pulling away. Diehard Rams fans might want to start planning on attending the conference title game on Dec. 6.
Sean Keeler, sports columnist: Nevada 23, CSU 21
What do Texas, CU and Oregon State have in common, other than having beaten the Rammies? The Longhorns (No. 19), Buffs (No. 24) and Beavers (No. 15) are all among the best offenses in the country when it comes to third-down conversion rates … and all are a complete pain in the backside to get off the field. Nevada ranks fourth nationally in third-down conversion hits (52.5%), behind only Miami, Army and Indiana. Uh-oh. If CSU doesn’t keep the Takeaway Train rolling, this one could be Matt Lubick‘s revenge.
Matt Schubert, sports editor: Nevada 27, CSU 21
It could be argued Nevada isn’t as bad as its 3-6 record suggests, given how closely the Wolf Pack played SMU (29-24) and Fresno State (24-21) in home losses and how easily they put up points on Oregon State in a 42-37 win at Mackay Stadium. It could also be argued CSU isn’t as good as its 5-3 record suggests, given the trouble the Rams had putting away mediocre-to-bad Air Force, UTEP and New Mexico teams. Here’s guessing that evens out Saturday, with a late Brendon Lewis touchdown scramble being the difference.
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