With the Broncos losing several playmakers, Tim Patrick has stepped up and performed beyond expectations
With both Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler missing significant time due to injury, the Denver offense has lost a significant portion of its firepower that it opened the season with. Tim Patrick is doing his part to help provide that spark in their absence.
Part of his benefit has been his ability to be a safety blanket for Teddy Bridgewater. The NFL’s biggest trend in recent years has been Next Gen Stats tracking, enabled by Zebra Technologies’ on-field tracking. They release all sorts of interesting analytical data that measure player performance.
This week, they released their statistics and tracking data across the league through Week 5. Tim Patrick is first in Catch Rate over Expected in the NFL by a significant margin. Patrick has a +15.8% Catch Rate over Expected, which ranks 1.7% over second-ranked Amari Cooper. While Next Gen Stats doesn’t give an exact definition on this statistic, FiveThirtyEight does.
CROE is given as the share of passes a receiver caught above or below what we would expect for an average player on the same team, with the same coach and QB, in a similar on-field situation.
This is just one of several metrics that illustrate how Tim Patrick has been performing this season. The 6’4 target ranks 5th in Defense-Adjusted Yards Above Replacement, or DYAR; 2nd in Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average, or DVOA; 18th in Effective Yards, and 4th in catch rate.
DYAR gives the value of the performance on plays where a receiver caught the ball, compared to replacement level, adjusted for situation and opponent and then translated into yardage. DVOA measures a team’s efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent. Essentially, it’s designed to measure success relative to league average. Effective Yards is essentially converting that DVOA figure into a yards per attempt figure, and catch rate measures a total percentage of passes completed to a receiver. Note: Catch rate doesn’t measure drops.
Patrick ranks ahead of several notable receivers in DYAR like Deandre Hopkins, Davante Adams, the aforementioned Amari Cooper, and many others. He ranks behind only Christian Kirk in DVOA, and only Kirk, Rondale Moore, and Sterling Shepard have him beat in catch rate.
Broncos WR Tim Patrick has gone 127 targets without a drop.
Simply put: one of the most underrated receivers in the NFL. pic.twitter.com/bvi39E6B43
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) October 13, 2021
Patrick should be a big part of Denver’s offense moving forward this season.
Kareem Jackson was limited with a back injury, while Gordon was tagged with a hip injury. Ronald Darby was a full go at practice, hinting at a possible return in week 6.
Hinton’s NFL journey has been an eventful one so far, and his tenure with the Broncos has helped the team grow and has been a boon in the locker room this season.
Head Coach Vic Fangio said Mike Boone is ready to go after suffering a quad injury in the preseason.
Raiders’ defensive tackle Johnathan Hankins did not practice Wednesday with an injury, while five Raiders were limited in practice, including linebacker Cory Littleton.
Former Hawaii corner Rojesterman Farris was signed back to the Broncos practice squad on Wednesday. Farris replaced linebacker Avery Williamson, who was signed onto the Titans’ 53-man roster.
The Broncos are hosting a weekend-long ceremony to celebrate Atwater’s induction into the Hall of Fame and Mike Shanahan’s induction into the Broncos Ring of Fame, including pregame and halftime ceremonies during Sunday’s game.
The 3-time Super Bowl Champion who ranks among the best receivers in Broncos history will be inducted into the Colorado Sports Hall of Fame in 2022. McCaffrey is being honored for his efforts with the Broncos and his work in youth sports, including leading the Dare to Play youth camp for children and young adults with Down Syndrome.