What does it take for a pass defense to one of the best ever?
The 2025 Denver Broncos pass defense was good, but not great. They have a chance to be great this season, but what does it mean to be a great pass defense. I discussed the defense as a whole earlier this off-season.
In order for a defense to be one of the best ever at defending the pass, they have to be able to cover as well as rush the passer. The 2024 Bronco defense was good at both – leading the league in sacks and finishing sixth in passer rating allowed. The additions and returns could have the 2025 Bronco pass defense in the conversation with the best ever. We need to define that first.
I am calling any defense that allows a passer rating of 70 or lower an elite passing defense -with some qualifications. Many recent seasons have had no pass defenses that held opposing passers below 70. We will get into more details later.
For historical comparisons, though, we need context. There were 21 NFL defenses in 1977 that allowed a passer rating on 70 or less and there were ONLY 28 NFL teams. That season the Falcons allowed a passer rating of 37.4. There were NOT 21 elite passing defenses in 1977. In 2012 there were no teams that allowed a passer rating of 70 or lower for the first time in NFL history.
The 1977 Falcons look really impressive until you realize that the 1973 Steelers held opposing passers to a rating of 33.1, which is the lowest since the merger. Only four teams since the merger have held opposing QBs to less than 40. The other two are the 1975 Raiders (37.2) and 1973 Dolphins (39.9). Those four teams combined to allow 39 passing TDs and pick off QBs 119 times. That’s over three picks per passing TD. That’s insane relative to the modern NFL where an average QB throws two TDs for every one pick. So let’s bring in more historic context.
The average passer rating in the NFL (post-merger) hit its nadir in 1977 at 61.2. It peaked at 93.6 in 2020.
So while those great defenses in the 70s were good against the pass, relative to league average they weren’t as good as the 2002 Buccaneers, for example. The 2002 Tampa D allowed a passer rating of 48.4 which was 32.0 better the league average. That was the best difference ever (A minus B is a difference not a differential), but that is only a smidgeon better than the 73 Steelers who were 31.8 better than average (table below).
It’s also interesting to note that (using passer rating allowed) only three passing defenses have repeated as the league leader post-merger and only one team has been best for three straight seasons.
We had three elite passing defenses in 2011 and we have not had a season since with more than one. We also haven’t seen one elite passing defense since 2021. So maybe we have to redefine elite by using how much better than average the pass D is. While The Lions, Ravens and Bengals have had the best pass defenses over the past three seasons, it’s hard to call any of them one of the best in NFL history since none of them were 15 points or more better than average. Let’s revisit that plot with the best PR D shown as well (see below).
Oddly enough the slope on both trendlines is roughly the same – meaning that the best pass D is normally about 20 better than average in PR allowed. So if we look at the best 30 pass defenses in NFL history in terms how much better than average they were in PR allowed we get this table below.
| Rank | Season | PR Allowed | TEAM | NFL Passer Rating | DIF AVE – Best |
| 1 | 2002 | 48.4 | TAM | 80.4 | 32.0 |
| 2 | 1973 | 33.1 | PIT | 64.9 | 31.8 |
| 3 | 1988 | 41.2 | MIN | 72.9 | 31.7 |
| 4 | 1975 | 37.2 | OAK | 65.8 | 28.6 |
| 5 | 1982 | 44.9 | MIA | 73.4 | 28.5 |
| 6 | 2019 | 62.8 | NWE | 90.4 | 27.6 |
| 7 | 1980 | 47.8 | WAS | 73.7 | 25.9 |
| 8 | 2021 | 65.3 | BUF | 90.8 | 25.5 |
| 9 | 1970 | 40.4 | MIN | 65.6 | 25.2 |
| 10 | 1976 | 42.6 | WAS | 67.0 | 24.4 |
| 11 | 2009 | 58.8 | NYJ | 83.0 | 24.2 |
| 12 | 1986 | 49.9 | CHI | 74.1 | 24.2 |
| 13 | 1991 | 52.1 | PHI | 76.2 | 24.1 |
| 14 | 1977 | 37.4 | ATL | 61.2 | 23.8 |
| 15 | 1990 | 54.3 | PIT | 77.3 | 23.0 |
| 16 | 2013 | 63.4 | SEA | 86.0 | 22.6 |
| 17 | 2008 | 60.6 | BAL | 83.2 | 22.6 |
| 18 | 1985 | 51.2 | CHI | 73.5 | 22.3 |
| 19 | 2003 | 56.2 | NWE | 78.3 | 22.1 |
| 20 | 1984 | 54.2 | SEA | 76.1 | 21.9 |
| 21 | 1996 | 55.4 | GNB | 76.9 | 21.5 |
| 22 | 1987 | 53.8 | SFO | 75.2 | 21.4 |
| 23 | 1981 | 51.8 | DAL | 72.9 | 21.1 |
| 24 | 1998 | 57.4 | MIA | 78.3 | 20.9 |
| 25 | 2000 | 57.5 | MIA | 78.1 | 20.6 |
| 26 | 2018 | 72.9 | CHI | 92.9 | 20.0 |
| 27 | 1974 | 44.3 | PIT | 64.2 | 19.9 |
| 28 | 2016 | 69.7 | DEN | 89.3 | 19.6 |
| 29 | 1972 | 47.0 | PIT | 66.3 | 19.3 |
| 30 | 2005 | 61.2 | CHI | 80.1 | 18.9 |
The 2016 Broncos (No Fly Zone) come in at 28th – 19.6 better than average. There are seven teams from this century in the top 20 with the most recent being the 2021 Bills who come in at 8th. Other than the two amazing pass defenses that we discussed earlier (73 PIT and 02 TAM), the only other team that was greater than 30 better than average was the 1988 Vikings.
Interestingly enough the Steelers were tied for 11th in sacks with 33 in 14 games and were well behind the league leader that season, the Potatoes, who had 53 sacks. The Cardinals that season had the worst pass defense allowing a PR of 93.1 – which was average in 2024.
The 1988 Vikings only had 37 sacks which was tied for 16th. The Rams led the league that season with 56. So that is two of the four best pass defenses in NFL history that did not have elite pass rushes (at least in terms of sacks).
The 2002 Bucs were tied for 8th in sacks with 43. The Eagles led the league with 56 that season. Their ANYA was crazy though at 2.3. That was a step above the number two team, Packers, at 4.2. Similarly the 73 Steelers had an ANYA of 0.6, which was half of the number two team, Dolphins, at 1.2. The 88 Vikings were the same allowing 2.1 with the number two Bears allowing 3.8. ANYA is average net yards per attempt.
The 2024 Bronco pass defense was tied for 4th at 5.3. The Eagles led the league at 4.8. The Lions, who led the league in PR allowed were tied with five teams for 13th in ANYA allowed.
So what would it take for the 2025 to join this list of elite pass defenses? Well the 2024 Broncos allowed a passer rating of 86.2 which was only 6.1 better than average. So getting to the mid 70s in passer rating allowed would take a big jump. The new Bronco defenders relative to 2024 could get us there. The Broncos had eight defenders that allowed a passer rating of 100 or worse when they were in coverage last season and four of those were DBs:
- PJ Locke – 125.8
- Keidron Smith – 118.7
- Devon Key – 115.5
- Levi Wallace – 106.4
Wallace is no longer with the Broncos and the other three probably won’t play much if they even make the team. Locke played 1000 defensive snaps in 2024. Key played 251. Wallace played 307 and Smith played 16. Putting Talanoa Hufanga in for Locke should be a huge improvement in pass defense. In his All-Pro season Hufanga allowed a PR of 91.4. The following season (2022) he was only allowing a passer rating of 60.1 when he got hurt. Even playing hurt in 2024 he was better than Locke – allowing a PR of 118.6 last season.
The other position that will be a huge help to the passing defense is the replacement of Cody Barton with Dre Greenlaw. Greenlaw is much better in coverage that Barton who allowed a PR of 98.2 last season. During his career Greenlaw has allowed a PR of 91.0.
The pressure should be there in 2025, but as we have seen, pressure is not necessary to be a legendary pass defense. The 2025 Broncos would need a jump in ANYA though. Stathead.com does not allow for ANYA as a season/team search, but the best ANYA from a recent team was the 2019 Patriots who allowed 3.5 which was 1.1 yards better than the second place team. The 2017 Jaguars were also a step above the second place teams (Ravens and Vikings). They allowed 3.7 which was 1.1 better than the tied second place teams at 4.6. So the 2025 Broncos would need to at least get to the mid 4’s in ANYA to be in the conversation of one of the greatest pass defenses in NFL history.
For historical context, the NFL average ANYA in 1977 was 3.5. That is the lowest since the merger. The highest it has ever been was 6.4 in 2020.
So let’s look deeper at ANYA. In most, but not all, seasons the defense that leads in passer rating allowed also leads ANYA.
The Broncos only show up once on this list – 2016. Could 2025 be their second appearance? With a pass wacky as the NFL has become, being the best pass defending team almost always means a playoff appearance.
From 1983 to 2024 there were 180 teams that allowed a passer rating or 70 or better and 159 of them had a winning record (88%). The last team to have an elite passing defense and a losing record was the 2009 Bills who went 6 and 10. To find the next you have to go back to the 2003 Bucs who went 7 and 9.
The 2009 Bills couldn’t stop the run, so teams didn’t have to pass against them. Oddly enough, the 2003 Bucs were good against the pass and the run, they just had an atrocious offense that completely shat the bed in the second half of the season.
Conclusion
The Bronco pass defense in 2024 was good, but not great. While they were one of the best last season, they were not the best even in a down year for pass defense. They will need to make big jumps in passer rating allowed and ANYA to become the best pass defense in the league in 2025 and they will need to make even bigger jumps to enter the conversation of some of the best pass defenses in league history. With the addition of three good or great pass defenders in Hufanga, Greenlaw and Jahdae Barron, the Broncos have the chance. The question will come down to health and opportunity.
While the 2025 Broncos will play two games against Kermit the QB, and perpetual paper champion Justin Herbert. They also have to face Joe Burrow, Jayden Daniels, Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott, CJ Stroud and Jordan Love. They will also get to face some shakier QBs:
- Cam Ward making his first NFL start
- Daniel Jones
- Justin Fields
- Russell Wilson
- Geno Smith
- Trevor Lawrence
Hopefully the 2025 passing D is good enough to slow done the elite QBs and make life miserable for the place-holder QBs.