There’s a lot of buzz around whether to start or sit a rookie QB for their first season. Anecdotally, it’s easier to remember the good cases than the bad. Everyone knows how Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers sat, but Rex Grossman also sat the majority of his rookie season before fading into football obscurity. This person went through and found all the quarterbacks that sat the majority of their rookie season, and let’s look at what the data can show us.
To Start or to Sit Rookie QBs
The Data
Using CBS Sports’ list of how QBs have worked out for their teams over the years, any mixed result or higher was considered a “hit” for their team. For clarity, Fields is a miss because even if he hits in Pittsburgh, it was a miss for the Chicago Bears. Incomplete results were omitted (so no 2023 QBs were included). Using this set, there have been 33 QBs selected in the first round since 2012, and seven sat their rookie year while 26 started nine or more games. Using the mixed result or higher, 11/26 QBs thrown into immediate action are considered hits. Three sitting quarterbacks hit out of the seven in the set.
Sit Your Rookie QB
The Chiefs sat Mahomes behind Alex Smith and then paired him with Andy Reid, a good coach by almost every mark. Watson was a hit for the Texans until his off the field saga and trade occurred. Lamar Jackson is the perfect AFC North QB, with rushing ability that makes even the fiercest defenses a tad concerned.
However, Trey Lance sat for a season then Brock Purdy stole his lunch. What was considered a perfect landing spot to develop in San Francisco became a dynasty fantasy football nightmare. Paxton Lynch sat for the majority of his rookie season. More thoroughly, Lynch sat the majority of his NFL career, he only started four games for the Denver Broncos. The Manziel saga was mind-numbing from the start, but the Browns are the Browns.
Start Your Rookie QB
Spending less money on the most expensive position in football is probably a good thing. Ten of the past 11 Super Bowls have had a QB on a rookie deal play in the game, and the flexibility it provides is fairly important (unless you have Patrick Mahomes or Tom Brady, then do whatever you want apparently). Andrew Luck was the lone bright spot for immediate starters from 2012 through 2015, but Goff and Wentz each provided varying degrees of success to their teams.
There are certainly more notable misses than hits in this group with E.J. Manuel, Ryan Tannehill, and more recently Kenny Pickett the source of disdain for fanbases. Starting too soon can create bad habits (Sam Darnold seeing ghosts) but it also has the benefit of the team knowing what they have early. The Texans know they have a stud at QB on a rookie contract, so now they have the flexibility to push all the chips in early. Their playoff window is open earlier, and will stay open longer as a result.
Last Word on QBs
Looking at the raw numbers, starting your rookie QB resulted in a 42% hit rate, while sitting them resulted in almost exactly the same hit rate at 43%. Most analysts will consider Love a hit sooner rather than later. It’s also safe to say C.J. Stroud is a hit, while Anthony Richardson and Bryce Young are still coin flips.
If we’re more strict on what is a “hit”, then sitting definitely has the higher hit rate, but it’s a much smaller sample size. The amount of teams that have the luxury to sit a first round QB is small. Pair that with the benefit of the rookie scale, it’s a maneuver teams don’t employ often.
It all depends on where the player is in their development, and the environment they are in. A toolsy prospect who needs to clean some things up (Drake Maye) could benefit from a redshirt season. While Michael Penix, one of the more complete passers in the 2024 NFL Draft, is probably ready to start now. Unfortunately, he likely won’t get a shot this season.
Main Photo Credit: Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports
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