Let’s break down Audric Estime’s rookie season and what fans across Broncos Country can expect from him moving forward.
Denver Broncos running back Audric Estime’s rookie season has many people divided over his potential. It was a bit of a mixed bag of success, and I think his first career carry encapsulates it very well: a 13-yard gain that ended with a fumble that was recovered by Denver. The potential is there, the skill is there, there’s a road bump, but it will work out well for the Broncos in the end.
At the time of writing this, the Broncos current running back room lists Audric Estime, JK Dobbins, RJ Harvey, Jaleel McLaughlin, and Tyler Badie. Many members of Broncos Country weren’t too happy with that following the draft. I was leery as well, but the more I’ve thought on it, the more I’ve watched Harvey, and the more I’ve watched Estime, I feel a lot better about this group.
But for today’s research I took a look at every carry from Estime’s 2024 campaign to see what we can predict what his sophomore season will look like.
2024 Stat Crunch
Audric Estime took 75 handoffs last season that resulted in 67 gains, five losses, and five that ended up back at the line of scrimmage. Estime would finish with 305 yards with 4.1 yards per carry.
He was given a total of 87 yards before contact for an average of 1.2 yards before contact per carry. He would earn 218 yards after contact for a total of 2.9 yards after contact before carry. For reference, Saquon Barkley averaged 2.8 yards after contact per carry. On all his carries last season, Estime had two fumbles.
Estime mostly ran against seven-max boxes, seeing them on 56% of carries. Second-most was eight-man boxes at 26%, then six-man boxes at 11%, and he saw nine-man boxes 5% of the time.
Against a six-man box Estime had eight carries for 31 yards (3.9 YPC) with three yards after contact per carry. He was given 0.9 yards before contact before carry. Just one carry went for negative yards.
Against a seven-man box he had 42 carries for 207 (4.9 YPC) yards with 3.4 YACPC. He was given 1.5 YBCPC. Besides two carries that went for zero yards and one carry that went for a loss, every other carry went for positive yards.
Against an eight-man box he had 21 carries for 56 (2.7 YPC) yards with 2.1 YACPC. He was given just 0.6 YBCPC. Just two carries went for negative yards and he scored a touchdown.
Against a nine-man box he had four carries for 11 yards (2.8 YPC) with 1.5 YACPC. He was given 1.3 YBCPC. All but one of his carries went for positive yards and one went for a touchdown (one carry went for no gain).
With respect to formations, 50 of Estime’s 75 carries came out of Singleback, 15 out of the Gun, seven out of I, and three out of Pistol. Relative to personnel, 28 carries came out of 11 personnel, 16 out of 21 personnel, 15 out of 12 personnel, nine out of 22 personnel, and seven out of 13 personnel.
The Broncos mostly ran Inside Zone and variations of Inside Zone with Wham and Lead 43 times. The next most common play would be Power and variations of it (Power Lead) with Denver running it 10 times. Draw and variations of it (Draw Lead) would be the third-most used play with Estime, running it five times with the Lead being the most common version of it. Other plays include variations of Counter, Duo, Toss, Dive, and Inside Trap.
Overall, 44 of his carries were zone concepts and 31 of them were gap concepts.
In the zone scheme Estime would rack up a total of 138 yards (3.1 YPC) with 2.1 YACPC and with the offensive line giving him 1 YBCPC. Two of the carries went for a loss, and three of them went for no gain. In the gap scheme Estime would rush for 170 yards (5.5 YPC) with 4.1 YACPC and with the offensive line giving him 1.4 YBCPC. Two carries went for a loss, one went for no gain, and he scored both of his touchdowns on Power.
Only three of his 75 carries featured zero yards after contact. Two of the times he was hit in the backfield and one of the times he was hit at the line of scrimmage. Estime picked up four or more yards after contact on 19 of his 75 carries (25.3%).
General Thoughts on Estime’s 2024 Campaign
I think the semi-lackluster rookie season from Estime can be chalked up to a few different reasons: lack of playing time (his fumbles and injury played critical roles in this), misuse, and being placed in difficult rushing situations.
Playing time
Concerning his lack of playing time, managing just 75 carries over the season isn’t much. Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin had 139 and 113 carries, respectively. Even Bo Nix had nearly 100 carries. In games played, Estime would average just 5.8 carries per game with Williams averaging 8.2 and McLaughlin averaging 7.1 per game. And I’m not here blaming Estime for suffering an injury just two carries into his season, it’s just ended up being a large obstacle to overcome.
Misuse
And I also don’t necessarily say that I know better than both Sean Payton and Joe Lombardi, but my gut told me and the stats backed me up that Estime was misused last year. Too often did they run zone scheme plays with Estime when he is clearly a gap scheme guy. That’s what he did at Notre Dame and that’s what he should be doing in Denver. The fact that he averaged 2.4 more yards per carry as well as 2 more yards after contact per carry in the gap scheme is staggering. And his two of his three best games featured predominantly gap scheme plays.
Against the Chargers (the second time) in arguably his best game of the season, eight of his nine rushes were gap schemes. In that game he would rack up 48 yards (second-best of the year) with 5.3 YPC (best of any game with at least 6 rushes), and a massive 3.7 YACPC (best of any game with at least 6 rushes). Five of nine carries featured at least 4 YAC, eight of his nine carries would go for positive yards (one of them went for a touchdown), and the only rush that went for a loss started with him getting hit two yards in the backfield (he still gained a yard after contact).
Against the Bengals Estime would have arguably the worst game of his season (one that featured a rather infamous overtime) where eight of his nine carries were zone scheme plays. He would pick up just 24 yards (2.7 YPC) and 2.3 YACPC. The offensive line only gave him three yards before contact the entire game. On five of his carries he was given zero or less yards before contact, and all of those were Inside Zone. The lone gap scheme play they ran, Power, went for the second-most yards of his carries all game (five).
I think it’s clear that both Estime and the offensive line (at least with Estime in the game) all benefit from gap scheme running plays.
Difficult situations
Given that Javonte Williams was the best pass blocking running back on the roster last season, the Broncos were a bit more balanced on offense with him in the game. But with Estime, the Broncos were running the ball a considerable amount more. The Broncos ran the ball 54% of the time when he was on the field. Out of all of Williams’ snaps, the Broncos ran the ball just 24% of the time.
Estime was also was used often in end of game situations, goal line situations, and 3rd down, and short yardage situations. Hence why nearly 90% of his carries came against at least a seven-man box, and one third of all carries came against an eight or nine-man box.
These are not easy situations to thrive in. In fact they usually are the hardest any running back faces. Crazy, right?
Tape Breakdown: 2024 Specifics and Concepts
Inside Zone Fake FB Wham
This is a fantastic example of the work Estime can do after contact. It includes eight yards after contact and five defenders needed to ultimately take him down. Look at all of the black and gold that is around him at the end of the play (and shout out to Forsyth for getting in the mix there).
Draw Lead
On this draw play Estime racks up his season high for yards after contact on a single rush with 19. His ability to carry multiple box defenders along with him at the same time is a real testament to his strength. If he managed to score on this run then it would’ve been one of the best rushes across the NFL last season.
Toss
Here is a highlight of Estime’s vision and ability to put his foot in the ground. His ability to see the cutback lane and hit a couple defenders with a jump cut and then immediately get vertical is a good measure of his agility in space. And then at the end you have him putting his shoulder down to pick up a couple extra yards.
Duo Wham
An up-the-gut rush that results in two broken tackles and a drive through two defenders as he picks up an extra yard at the end. This nine-yard run included five yards after contact.
Pin and Pull
A heckuva stiff arm on display by Estime after shedding an early tackle attempt. He picks up eight yards after contact on this play.
The middle linebacker makes a good read on this play and shoots his gap before Nate Adkins is able to get there, but Estime is able to juke out the LB a yard in the backfield and goes on to pick up six yards on a play that was nearly DOA.
Inside Trap
Estime doesn’t like the look he’s given on this Inside Trap so he makes a nice bounce to the outside, runs through the first defender, then carries the second defender three yards while brushing off a hit from another. A strong rush.
20525 outlook
Given the moves Denver has made this offseason, Estime will likely not be the “guy” of the running back room. He won’t be a bell cow. But I don’t think any of the backs will be one either. It definitely feels like a run game via committee this year with each of them bringing something specific to the table. And I don’t think that’s a bad thing.
I’m expecting around a 600-700 yard season from Estime on about eight to ten carries a game, and at least five touchdowns seems likely.
These numbers don’t particularly seem that high, but I don’t think any one running back will really be leading the way, maybe besides Harvey. I think he is the only one with a chance to break 1,000 yards rushing.
I also don’t think that this is a knock on Estime. He’ll be a reliable second down, third down, and goal line back and that is an incredibly important role to play. I’m excited to see him breakout this season, much like Marvin Mims Jr. did in his sophomore year.