Horse Tracks: Can Broncos get to 10 wins?

Short answer is yes.

Good morning, Broncos Country!

Trying to predict win-loss records in May is ridiculous. But it’s really no less ridiculous in August, even though you’ve made it through the offseason hype and training camp reality check.

Because predicting how a season will go is impossible. You can’t predict who is going to have not just a breakout season but a career-changing one, like Nik Bonitto last season.

You don’t know if the rookies will be able to adjust to the speed of the NFL game in time to make a big impact, especially when it’s a rookie quarterback.

You can’t predict weather or injuries or weird circumstances. And you can’t predict how your opponents and conference rivals will respond from their either good or bad performance the season prior.

So many unknown variables.

And yet, that won’t keep any of us from doing it anyway.

First Quarter (Broncos 3-1)

Coaches like to talk about the season in quarters, so we will too — and the Broncos’ first quarter is reasonably tough but not insurmountable. Hosting No. 1 overall draft pick Cam Ward and the Titans, Denver’s defense should disrupt the rookie enough to get the win at home.

Week 2 against the Colts should be another win for the Broncos, but Week 3 could easily be the team’s first loss as they play the Chargers in L.A. I think Denver will split the series with the Chargers, but the away game will be the Broncos’ first loss (setting up a nice revenge win in Denver a few months later).

Week 4 on Monday Night Football against the Bengals could be an epic battle, and I’ll take home field advantage and the Denver defense wreaking havoc on Joe Burrow.

Second Quarter (Broncos 3-1)

The slate of October opponents features two decent teams, including the Super Bowl champs and America’s Team, and two previously terrible squads (Giants and Jets). I don’t think the Broncos will escape the Eagles with a W, but it could be a good test for Denver to see how they stack up to top-tier teams. But I think they can beat the Jets in London and then the Giants and Cowboys at home.

If Denver can get to the midway point of the season with just two losses, that will be a major accomplishment. Even 5-3 would be encouraging. But 4-4 would be disappointing. It wouldn’t be panic mode, but it would mean several losses that shouldn’t have happened.

And given the gauntlet of games coming the second half, it will be important to build a lead.

Third Quarter (Broncos 2-3)

The next five games for Denver will be a doozy. Starting with a tough road trip to Houston, followed by home games against AFC West rivals Raiders and Chiefs, Denver will finally get its true Bye Week after that tough three-game stretch. They could finish 0-3 or 3-0…or anywhere in between.

Following the Week 12 Bye, Denver will travel to Washington to take on the Commanders in a Sunday Night Football matchup featuring the two best rookie quarterbacks of 2024. I give Washington the edge here but it could be a game for the ages as Sean Payton and Dan Quinn try to outsmart eachother. Denver will then travel from the East Coast to the West to battle the hated Raiduhs. I dare say the Broncos drop both those games.

Fourth quarter (2-2)

Denver’s final four matchups include two 2024 playoff teams, one of which is its biggest AFC West foe, the Kansas City Chiefs.

The Packers matchup is a tough one but one that Denver can win — especially at home. A win over the Jaguars the following week put the Broncos in good shape to take on its final two matchups — the Chiefs at Arrowhead (Seriously, NFL? Always in December???) and then the Chargers at home.

Although the Broncos should and could be 3-1 in this quarter, the more likely scenario is 2-2, and we won’t even entertain the idea of 1-3.

But if all goes according to plan, this is the year the Broncos defeat Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs at Arrowhead. This Christmas matchup will be a “prove-it” game with playoff implications for Denver, and likely every fan in Broncos Country has circled this one on their calendars.

10-7???

If Denver gets 10 wins this year — and its sophomore QB builds on his surprisingly good rookie season — 2025 will have been a success.

In full disclosure, last season I predicted 4-5 wins, so what do I know? 😉

Broncos/NFL News

Sean Payton built haven for undrafted rookies with Saints, Broncos
The Broncos inked 15 undrafted free agents this past cycle. Coaches, scouts and Sean Payton draw undrafted talent by pitching them on past successes.

‘Monday Night Football’ vs. Bengals, ‘Sunday Night Football’ at Commanders among Broncos’ 2025 prime-time matchups
The Broncos are set to play on some big stages under the bright lights.

Denver Broncos Building POWERHOUSE Front Office Structure | kgw.com

Must-watch game for every NFL team during the 2025 regular season – The Athletic
From Ravens-Chiefs, Bears-Commanders and more, The Athletic’s NFL writers pick the best games for every team in 2025.

Can Broncos’ defense be elite enough to help Denver survive brutal early stretch? – The Athletic
The Broncos could have one of the NFL’s best defenses after an already stout unit added Dre Greenlaw, Talanoa Hufanga and Jahdae Barron.

The Best Player Who Could Still Be Cut from Every NFL Roster In 2025 Offseason
Now that the early stages of free agency and the 2025 NFL draft are over, the process of trimming rosters will begin. Teams can carry up to 90 players through training camp but must trim rosters to 53 players by August 27.

Shedeur Sanders signs rookie contract with the Cleveland Browns
Former Colorado Buffaloes quarterback Shedeur Sanders reached his next NFL milestone on Monday as he signed his rookie contract with the Cleveland Browns.

Packers submit revised proposal to ban tush push play ahead of Spring League Meeting
A revised proposal to ban the tush push play has been submitted by the Green Bay Packers, NFL Network Insiders Ian Rapoport, Mike Garafolo and Tom Pelissero reported Monday, a day prior to the league meeting commencing in Minneapolis.

Niners, LB Fred Warner agree to terms on three-year, $63 million contract extension
The San Francisco 49ers and linebacker Fred Warner have agreed to terms on a three-year, $63 million contract extension, NFL Network Insiders Ian Rapoport and Mike Garafolo reported Monday.

Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence impressed by ‘explosive’ rookie Travis Hunter: ‘He can run all day’
After working with rookie Travis Hunter during OTAs, Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence likes what he’s seeing from a No. 2-overall pick who enters the NFL with great expectations as a potential two-way player.

NFL news roundup: Browns QB Shedeur Sanders inks rookie contract; Jets’ Will McDonald IV to wear No. 9
NFL.com keeps you up to date with all of the latest league news from around the NFL. Visit NFL.com’s transaction hub for a daily breakdown.

NFL news roundup: Texans sign DT Foley Fatukasi; Ravens S Ar’Darius Washington tears Achilles
NFL.com keeps you up to date with all of the latest league news from around the NFL. Visit NFL.com’s transaction hub for a daily breakdown.