Football Outsiders’ analytics show just how well Tim Patrick has played in 2021

Tim Patrick was often regarded as the WR4 in Denver all offseason, but his play so far has exceeded those expectations.

With both Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler missing significant time due to injury, there are plenty of fans, writers, and analysts who are a little skeptical of Denver’s receiving corps moving forward into some tough games.

Tim Patrick is doing his part to help answer those question marks.

Football Outsiders has updated their statistical metrics through Week 3. Some of the names at the top probably shouldn’t surprise anyone: Cooper Kupp, Mike Williams, and Tyler Lockett have played at a crazy high level and Kupp and Lockett are both household names. Yet snuck in right above Lockett is Denver’s own Tim Patrick.

Patrick ranks 4th in Defense-Adjusted Yards Above Replacement, or DYAR; 1st in Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average, or DVOA; 11th in Effective Yards, and 1st in catch rate.

DYAR gives the value of the performance on plays where a receiver caught the ball, compared to replacement level, adjusted for situation and opponent and then translated into yardage. DVOA measures a team’s efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent. Essentially, it’s designed to measure success relative to league average. Effective Yards is essentially converting that DVOA figure into a yards per attempt figure, and catch rate measures a total percentage of passes completed to a receiver. Note: Catch rate doesn’t measure drops.

Patrick is one of five receivers to break the 100-yard mark in DYAR; he leads DVOA by 6.9%; he’s six yards behind Amari Cooper in Effective Yards, and his Catch Rate is the only figure in the 90s (92%).

Not bad for the supposed WR4.

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