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TLDR: A hedge is a must-have, and always should have been, but drafting a QB in the first round is an absolute no-go based on the history of first round QBs compared with Drew Lock. Keeping in mind that Drew lock is NOT a first round QB! He’s ranked 14th in QBR out of the 34 QBs drafted in the first round since 2010, and 22nd out of 34 in my own adjusted ranking scheme. Worth one more season before we give him up and watch him flourish and win multiple super bowls for Bill Belichick, in my opinion. He was a project QB when he was drafted, and giving up on a project 1 year in is not the way to succeed.
With all of the talk about drafting a round 1 QB this year, I did some independent research and compared Drew Lock to all of the QBs drafted in the first round since 2010. I looked at Completion%, TD and INT %, Yards per game and average QBR. I even included Win % for those #QBWinz guys out there.
Out of 34 QBs who have been drafted in the first round, Drew ranks as follows:
27th in Completion %
19th in TD %
30th (!) in INT %
17th in Yards per Game
14th in QBR
I averaged the rankings in all categories, and out of 34 QBs in the FIRST ROUND, he ranks better than 12 of them, sitting at 22nd in average ranking across these categories. (21st if you factor in Win %, which I’m not a big fan of)
He’s firmly middle of the road, but we’re not talking about QBs drafted in the 2nd and beyond, were talking about him in comparison with only 1st round guys! He ranks above guys that franchises hung their hopes on and committed to for 25, 37, even 73 games! And we’re talking about trying to get another guy after 18 games? Keep in mind the likes of Baker Mayfield and Josh Allen (who Broncos fans would take in a heartbeat) were both well below Drew’s stats in these rankings before this season. I’m not saying he WILL make a turn around, but I’m saying calling him a bust already after barely more than 1 season worth of games, especially considering the COVID issues and multiple OCs he’d dealt with is a big mistake. He’s shown enough promise in his big games to become a Baker Mayfield / Jared Goff type QB at worst. Especially if he cleans up the INTs and Completion percentage.
So yes, bring in a hedge QB, someone like a Ryan Fitzpatrick or Nick Foles who we know are not franchise QBs or long term answers, but who can come in if Drew is struggling, or finish out a season if the Broncos decide he just can’t get there. But the idea of using a potential Top 10 pick on a QB and rolling the dice when we already have a guy who has shown the ability to light up the stadium at times and just needs some time to get used to the scheme and settle in to the NFL. We knew Drew was a project when they drafted him, that’s why he fell to the 2nd round. Giving up on a project after 18 games under these circumstances is crazy.
Thanks for all you guys do, hope everyone has a safe and happy New Year!