As a rookie, Bo Nix was insane within the goal-to-go situational passing. He was so good…
A very interesting bit of data was shared last week by Warren Sharp of Sharp Football Analysis covering quarterbacks completion rates in goal-to-go situations last season. Among the NFL’s best, Denver Broncos then rookie quarterback, Bo Nix, was among the league leaders in this stat.
completion rate on goal-to-go passes:
69% – Lamar Jackson
68% – Jordan Love
65% – Bo Nix
65% – Baker Mayfield
63% – Jalen Hurts
63% – Patrick Mahomes
59% – Jared Goff
58% – Dak Prescott
57% – Aaron Rodgers
56% – C.J. Stroud
55% – Sam Darnold
55% – Brock Purdy
54% – Joe Burrow…— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) June 25, 2025
There were only six quarterbacks above 60% passing and Nix was one of those. Only Lamar Jackson and Jordan Love performed better than Nix overall. We quote tweeted Sharp commenting on just how good Nix was and Sharpe graced us with an even bigger eye-opener breakdown.
Going back to the year 2000, no rookie performed better than Bo Nix did in goal-to-go passing situations. He ranked number first overall in success rate, completion rate, and touchdown rate and third overall in expected points added.
Bo Nix’s rank in goal-to-go among all rookie QBs since 2000 (min 25 dropbacks)
#1-of-17 in success (54%)
#1-of-17 in completion rate (65%)
#1-of-17 in TD rate (50%)
#3-of-17 in EPA (+0.19)https://t.co/NxcjVt8oa7— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) June 25, 2025
Heading into year two, the expectations for Nix should be even higher than they were coming in as a first round pick.
Earlier this month, Offensive Coordinator Joe Lombardi provided an example that aptly shows us how rapidly Nix is progressing in his NFL career.
“He had a completion on a play-action concept that last year he probably wasn’t real comfortable with the footwork,” Lombardi said of Nix. “He came back and said, ‘Man, it’s so great that I don’t have to think about the footwork.’ You can just feel the comfort level. He’s not thinking as much when you give him the play. He can get in and out of the huddle with a lot more comfort. He doesn’t have to think as much. He can just kind of play free and natural, and you can certainly sense that out here.”
The details are becoming second nature, which will allow Nix to focus on the real job of a quarterback — managing the offense and flow of each play.
Sean Payton also mentioned that second-nature aspect of Nix’s progression and processing. Every beat of a second matters in the NFL and the quicker things happen from the quarterback will often beat defenses more consistently.
“Less pause, less hesitation with the play call in the huddle,” Sean Payton said. “Less pause, less hesitation in the pocket. He’s playing fast, and again protecting the ball. He’s hard to sack. He was hard to sack in college. You’re seeing him practice faster with more confidence.”
It’s funny to think back to some of the chatter post-draft last year. There was stated concern about his age coming into the NFL, but that should never come up again. He came in as a rookie looking like a multi-year starter and it sure looks like that accelerated growth will continue into year two.
The sky is the limit for Bo and, frankly, for us fans since we get to enjoy this journey too!