The Colorado Avalanche were bounced in the first round of this year’s playoffs in catastrophic fashion, blowing a third-period lead in Game 7 to the Dallas Stars. Despite the early exit this year, Colorado remains a team that will be in playoff contention again next season. However, as their core ages and pieces start to move out, their window to win another Stanley Cup is quickly closing. Colorado has 18 players signed for next season (11 forwards, five defensemen, and two goalies) for $86.8MM (per PuckPedia). While that isn’t a terrible position to be in, that is where the rosy outlook ends, as the Avalanche do have some notable free agents to try and retain and a few contracts they would probably like to shed. So, what can they do to remain a contender?
The Avalanche faced a situation that wasn’t dissimilar to that of previous Stanley Cup Champions. Their depth has been eroded, their prospect cupboard emptied, and their draft pick capital dwindling. A lot of that happened because Colorado took healthy runs at essential players, which worked out well as they won a championship in 2022. But since then, Colorado has had to patch the holes in their lineup with less-than-ideal solutions.
For the Avalanche, one of the key areas of concern has become their center depth, which has become a weakness following the departure of Nazem Kadri in free agency. On their second line, the Avalanche have tried Casey Mittelstadt, Ryan Johansen, Alex Newhook, J.T. Compher, Brock Nelson and Charlie Coyle. That’s a list of talented players, but none have been able to stick, which has created a major issue for Colorado.
If the Avalanche hope to contend again, they need to solidify that position, which will be easier said than done. There are a few options available in free agency. Still, unless the Avalanche dump a contract such as Ross Colton ($4MM) or Josh Manson ($4.5MM), they will not have the required cap space to compete for a free agent center such as Nelson, John Tavares or Sam Bennett and fill out the rest of their roster.
One might think that if Colorado can’t make a move in free agency, they could look at trading for a center. However, their lack of draft picks and prospects makes acquiring an impact center nearly impossible on the trade market unless they can trade a player on their roster and recoup some significant assets. Colorado has no picks in the first three rounds of the subsequent two drafts and only has maybe two or three prospects who project to make an impact in the NHL.
A player like Manson might be an option to move, as he doesn’t appear to be a top-four NHL defenseman anymore and probably needs to be at his current salary ($4.5MM) and Colorado’s cap constraints. Teams likely wouldn’t line up to acquire him at that price, but if Colorado could move him, it would allow them to upgrade their second defensive pairing and maybe take some of the pressure off Cale Makar and Devon Toews. The Avalanche could also move Manson via trade and slide Sam Malinski into the top four, but it would be a massive gamble as he probably isn’t ready for that type of assignment. With limited cap space, it is unlikely that Colorado can keep Manson and try to upgrade their top four, which means they will need to make some type of decision this summer or opt to remain status quo and focus their attention on the forwards.
Trading players off the current roster could help Colorado move to restock the cupboards, but it will leave them in a challenging position for this upcoming season if they further reduce their team depth. The Washington Capitals pulled off a similar move just a few years ago, shedding several costly veterans but keeping their core players to make another run eventually. It worked out well for the Capitals as they have now reaped the rewards of their gamble, but there are no guarantees that their strategy could work in Colorado. It’s a delicate line to straddle as Colorado will try to avoid the same fate as previous Stanley Cup Champions who either constructed their roster poorly or waited too long to pivot into a retool.
A key for Colorado is not to panic because of a first-round playoff exit and to recognize the unique position that the club is in. They were a period away from advancing to the second round of the playoffs over Dallas, and likely would have gotten past Winnipeg to reach the Western Conference Finals. The window is open for them to contend, and their star players remain at a high level. The Avalanche need to be aggressive with the cap space and remaining tradeable assets and try to push to position the team for another deep playoff run. It seems counterproductive for Colorado to subtract from their current roster depth in an attempt to get younger for future playoff pushes. Colorado must steal a line from John Cena and understand, “My time is now.” It should make for interesting theatre to see how keen they are on taking calculated risks this summer after a playoff loss that has undoubtedly left a bad taste in everyone’s mouth.
The pipeline is bare, the cap space is limited, but Colorado has pieces in place that would be the envy of almost every NHL team. The so-called heavy lifting is done; now it is up to Joe Sakic and Chris MacFarland to put a series of moves together that will elevate the likes of MacKinnon and Makar to try and win another Stanley Cup before the Avalanche’s window to contend slams shut.
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