Penalty Kill Excellence: The replicable quality of all Stanley Cup champions

The last 27 Stanley Cup champions have sported a power play that kills ~80% or more of their opponents’ advantages.

The 2025 Stanley Cup has been awarded to the Florida Panthers, and the parade was in full force this past weekend. Whenever the season comes to an end like this, I begin searching for common threads and comparables among Stanley Cup Champions to anticipate where the Colorado Avalanche might find their next competitive advantage. What stands out to me now is likely to garner a few “no duh, Adrian” comments. Still, I do think it’s worth noting that the Avalanche haven’t just lost their power play success, but also have left behind one key component that the last 27 champions share—a stellar penalty kill.

The Numbers Game

Let’s dive in and put on your water wings, because we’re about to get into some deep numbers, but I promise to start in the shallow end. Starting with the most obvious trend, 24 of the last 27 champions have had a playoff penalty kill percentage with a success rate of at least 80%. That means letting in one goal per five attempts, and comparing that to Colorado’s 69% this postseason should reveal an apparent discrepancy. Comparing teams to the 2022 juggernaut is starting to get old for me, but just for the sake of making a point, that vaunted group did kill off roughly four out of five power plays.

Now let’s examine xGA/PK per 60 numbers to take a deeper look and leverage some additional analytics. Since 2012, no Stanley Cup Champion has allowed more than 7.1 expected goals per 60 minutes of penalty kill situations during their run. When you consider the fact that most penalties come in the form of two-minute minors, that’s a very impressive metric.

Essentially, that means allowing just seven or fewer expected goals over 30-odd penalty kills. We’re still waiting on some numbers for this year’s Panthers xGA/PK per 60, but last year’s group had a 5.9 xGA/PK per 60. We’re also looking back at the 2022 Avs. 7.1 xGA/PK per 60 in the playoff run that brought Colorado its first cup in 25 years.

Affordable Solution

Now that we have proof in the pudding in the form of metrics, let’s talk about how the Avalanche can get back to being a stingy group that kills off penalties. Good news? Your PK is typically made up of guys from your bottom-six forward group and a smattering of the defensive group. That means bolstering the PK should be an affordable task with the Avalanche doing all they can to balance the books and form a quality roster.

I think the forwards that will make up the kill are pretty much settled unless you can find a cheap upgrade somewhere. Charlie Coyle, Jack Drury, Ross Colton, and Logan O’Connor should all excel once the kill, especially after a whole camp with a new assistant coach and tactical approach.

Necessary Adjustment

Now, as far as the defensive makeup of the PK, I’m hoping the Avalanche can find personnel to spell Cale Makar and his 2:10 per game time on ice in those situations, as we’ve seen the wear and tear negatively affect the young phenom. Cale is undoubtedly among the most creative and slickest players in his end with a knack for effectively clearing the puck, but it’s a skill that others with far less offensive upside can excel at as well.

I want to see Colorado fill their depth defense with penalty kill specialists that can rotate in and out of the lineup come playoff time. Saving Makar’s legs might also boost Colorado’s power-play success, as he will have the energy to go all out with the advantage. I view giving Cale more rest in certain situations as a necessary response to his significant importance to the team’s success. A Cale Makar at 100% can steal a whole series.

Easy Targets

Some higher-end free agents could help the Avalanche improve their kill, such as Ivan Provorov, among others. However, I think the key here is to take advantage of the existence of affordable solutions that are eager to fill the required role. My target on the back end is Dante Fabbro, who had a career high of 143 blocked shots and is pretty skilled in the department of puck retrieval.

I may be optimistic about his affordability, given that he is already making $2.5M AAV and has achieved some legitimate success with the Blue Jackets. At 6-feet tall and 189 pounds, he isn’t a giant, but with that, he has proven to be able to slot up and down the d group, having earned considerable ice time with Norris finalist Zach Werenski last season. It might be tough to get him out of Columbus, though, with rumors that they are working on something long-term, but July 1st will be here before we know it! Moreover, if the Avalanche are to trade a defender for a better fit, Fabbro is an excellent target, in my opinion.

As for forwards? I’ve seen or heard the name Michael Eyssimont come to the table a few times, and I like that. He should come in around the $1.25-1.5M range, depending on whether it’s a one or two-year deal. He could be compared to a Nicolas Aube-Kubel or Nick Cousins, and that seems like a solid fit if you ask me. Speaking of Nick Cousins, he’s due for a deal as well, although he’s not known for his PK prowess. The term will likely be short, so it might not be a bad idea to give him a go despite being over thirty, as he has plenty of experience and savvy to accompany his years in the NHL. He only played 50 games last season, but he scored 21 points and can play either wing or center if needed.

Hit me with your PK bolstering targets in the comments!