Welcome to another edition of NHL Predictions. Each day, our writers here at Last Word On Hockey break down the slate using matchup context, recent form, and underlying data analytics to project likely outcomes. This edition of NHL Predictions focuses on a Western Conference matchup between the Anaheim Ducks and the Colorado Avalanche. Be sure to check out more NHL Predictions throughout the 2025–26 season.
NHL Predictions: Anaheim Ducks vs Colorado Avalanche
2025–26 Season Series: Avalanche lead 1–0
Time: 9:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time (EST); 6:00 p.m. Pacific
How to Watch – US TV: Altitude, Victory+, KCOP-13, ESPN+ | Canada TV: SN+
Location: Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado
Setting the Stage
The Anaheim Ducks arrive in Denver at 25–21–3 playing some of their most complete hockey of the season. Anaheim has won four straight games, a sharp reversal from the nine-game skid that defined much of December. Importantly, this run has not been fueled by unsustainable finishing. Instead, it has come through structure, discipline, and a commitment to defending the middle of the ice. Even with Troy Terry and Leo Carlsson sidelined, the Ducks have found ways to stay competitive.
Meanwhile, the Colorado Avalanche continue to set the standard in the Western Conference and the league at 34–5–8. Colorado bounced back from a brief dip with a convincing win over Washington and remains one of the league’s most dangerous home teams. With altitude, pace, and elite talent all working in their favour, the Avalanche enter this matchup firmly in control of the broader narrative.
Anaheim Ducks Storyline
Anaheim’s recent success has been built on restraint. The Ducks have simplified their game, prioritized clean exits, and avoided the high-risk plays that previously led to extended defensive-zone sequences. Lukas Dostal has benefited from that shift, facing manageable shot quality rather than constant chaos. Cutter Gauthier’s scoring surge has added timely offence, but the foundation of this run has been defensive buy-in rather than offensive volume.
However, the margin remains thin. Anaheim still lacks depth scoring, and without Carlsson and Terry, offensive creation is heavily concentrated among a small group. Furthermore, special teams continue to hover below league average. Against teams that struggle to finish, Anaheim can survive that profile. Against Colorado, it becomes a much tougher equation.
Anaheim goal!Scored by Cutter Gauthier with 18:59 remaining in the 3rd period.Assisted by Drew Helleson.Anaheim: 4New York: 2#NYRvsANA #FlyTogether #NYR
— NHL Goals (@nhlgoals.bsky.social) 2026-01-20T05:09:02.664986Z
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Colorado Avalanche Storyline
Colorado’s game remains relentless. At five-on-five, the Avalanche drive play through speed, layered support, and constant puck pressure. Nathan MacKinnon continues to operate at a Hart Trophy level, dictating tempo through controlled entries and quick-strike transitions. Even when opponents defend well early, Colorado has shown an elite ability to tilt games in the second and third periods.
Defensively, the Avalanche are underrated. They suppress high-danger chances effectively and transition quickly out of trouble. Scott Wedgewood is the expected starter and has provided steady results behind a team that rarely allows sustained pressure. When Colorado establishes its forecheck, opponents are often forced into survival mode rather than execution.
Power play goal for Colorado!Scored by Nathan MacKinnon with 12:57 remaining in the 2nd period.Assisted by Martin Necas and Victor Olofsson.Colorado: 2Washington: 1#WSHvsCOL #GoAvsGo #ALLCAPS
— NHL Goals (@nhlgoals.bsky.social) 2026-01-19T22:36:00.726637Z
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The Prediction Model
The blended model simulates this matchup 10,000 times using four evenly weighted inputs. The in-house model gives Colorado a 69 percent win probability, driven by five-on-five finishing, transition dominance, and special teams separation. HockeyStats aligns closely at 68 percent, projecting a clear edge in shot quality and expected goal differential. MoneyPuck is slightly more aggressive at 71.2 percent, factoring in altitude, pace, and Anaheim’s limited offensive depth.
After blending all sources, Colorado lands at 69.4 percent, with fair odds around −227. Anaheim checks in at 30.6 percent, with fair odds near +227, placing the market squarely in line with model expectations.
NHL Predictions
Anaheim has earned its recent wins by slowing games down and forcing opponents to play through layers. Colorado is built to break that exact structure. The Avalanche can generate offence without extended zone time, and their ability to convert small mistakes into immediate chances limits Anaheim’s room for error. If the Ducks cannot stay disciplined and exit cleanly for long stretches, this matchup risks getting out of hand quickly.
Anaheim can compete early if Dostal is sharp, but sustaining that level for a full 60 minutes in Denver is a tall order.
Prediction: Avalanche win 4–2 (Model Probability: 69.4%)
2025–26 Season Prediction Record: 11–9
Prop Bets of the Night
On the Anaheim side, Cutter Gauthier over 0.5 points (-110) continues to stand out. His recent production has come from assertive puck touches and decisive shooting, not passive perimeter play, giving him a stable floor even if the Ducks spend extended time without the puck. Devon Toews over 0.5 points (+150) fits as a secondary Colorado angle that benefits from game flow rather than shot volume. Toews continues to log heavy minutes against top competition and remains a key outlet in Colorado’s transition game. Anaheim’s defensive improvements have come largely from collapsing low, which often leaves space at the blue line for quick-touch distribution. If Colorado spends sustained time in the offensive zone, Toews is well positioned to pick up a point through puck movement rather than individual creation.
2025–26 Season Prop Bet Record: 22–21 (+4.87 units)
Main Photo Credit: Kirby Lee – Imagn Images
Lineup disclaimer: Projected lineups and starting goaltenders are based on available information at the time of writing. Please check official team sources prior to placing any wagers.
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